Forget Night of the Long Knifes, this is Morning of the Plastic Spoons...

Alan Clarke's dairies tell of his abject fear of the Iron Lady's abilities to reshuffle her government. Eliminating those who challenged her and promoting those who'd suitably flattered her. Much the same can be said for Tony Blair, albeit watered down, eventually having to accept he couldn't simply fire Brown as he was so emphatically urged to do so.

This 'reshuffle' however is fundamentally different in one respect; the numbers.

Don't look, straight away, at who's entering the government but rather look at who's not leaving the government. This was billed as a radical reshuffle to reassert Gordon's authority. Instead,

• Peter Mandelson remains at Trade/Industry
• Alaister Darling remains at the Treasury
• David Miliband remains at the Foreign Office and
• Jack Straw remains at the Justice Department

The reason these haven't been moved? Not because they're doing an outstanding job (remember most of this week was spent as a distancing exercise from Alaister Darling) but rather the PM fears further turmoil, resignation and ultimately his demise.

Amidst all of this, there is surely one gleaming irony. Brown's frantic efforts to shore up his support has relied heavily upon the appointment of Sir Alan Sugar, soon to be Lord Sugar. (Does anyone remember Digby Jones? Cunt he may be but he effectively did the same job - then resigned) The same Alan Sugar who's been made famous for one phrase, 'You're fired'.

+++ Purnell resigns +++

James Purnell's resignation today, we are told, came as a surprise to Downing Street. The Prime Minister apparently took soundings from Mr Purnell as early as this afternoon and the good ship Brown (are ship metaphors being overdone?) was happy with the reply of the Work or Prisions Secretary.

His resignation should not have been a surprise, and yet it appears to have been.

Talk tonight of further resignations, John Hutton, Andy Burnham and even David Miliband would undoutedly change the picture dramatically, if they occured. The change would to to such an extent that it would be impossible to see how Gordon could continue.

In short, what we are witnessing is a cabinet coup.

But, like any coup, you shall need enough support. If Miliband, retaining if Foreign Office position, comes out and supports Gordon then I suspect the immediate danger shall pass.

However, one thing which shall be undoutedly damaged is this. Only three days ago the immending cabinet reshuffle was billed as being 'radical', Chancellor Balls, Foreign Secretary Mandelson etc. If, and this is still a hypothetical if, Darling and Miliband remain in their positions it shall demonstrate something much more dangerous - Gordon is scared.

Blears stands down

Make no mistake, Hazel Blear's resignation was calculated to cause the maximum damage possible, undermining Gordon ahead of the local and EU elections and taking away any gusto he may have dreamed of in a post election reshuffle.

Rumours are abundent at Westminster of an email, circulated to all, calling for Brown to step down immediately. Alan Johnston seems to be favourite for the position of a so-called care-taker Prime Minister.

I want to suggest two senarios. Firstly, if the pressure of Gordon becomes too much, high level resignations and open challenges to his authority (rather than the cloak and dagger affair at the moment) and he resigns any new comer would have to call an election. Austin Michell MP has floated this idea all morning. It would simply be too much for the electorate to see another 'unelected' Prime Minister, even though our system has no such direct election mechanism.

Secondly, Gordon survives. He has lost an immense amount of allies (Watson, McBride and Co) but manages to carry on; importantly without the likes of Blears in cabinet opposing him. The so-called 'green shoots' emerge and with Balls as Chancellor the economic picture improves. Going to an election, like this, would prehaps provide the worst-case senario for the Tories. Green-shoots could also be Gordon's saving grace. Anyone remember John Major's prospects in '91/2?

But that is perhaps the best case.

In reality it looks increasingly likely that the Prime Minister's authority shall be severly tested. And, as Labour MPs begin to concentrate 'on their constituencies' (you'll be hearing that phrase alot in the days and weeks to come), the sense of a panic within the party shall well and truly set in.

+++ Smith to stand down +++

I suppose the top line to emerge from today's political summaries is this: Gordon's imminent reshuffle shall be wide-ranging.

Jacqui Smith, who has faced questions to her authority from a very early stage as Home Secretary. announced she is to leave at the next reshuffle of Cabinet. One question though, in the midst the news of Smith's departure, really demonstrates the current fault lines running deep under Number 10 at the moment - that question? Who leaked the news of Smith's exit?

Undoutedly such a move has taken some of Gordon's much needed 'authority', appearing to fire Smith as a radical and bold move. Simularly, changing Darling and Miliband would have sent a further signal of Gordon's 'authorative' leadership.

It also however demonstrates that Gordon's adminstration is looking to after Gordon. If Smith leaked the details she will have done so to protect her own interests, jumping before she was pushed. If Mandelson is behind the leak it shall, again, demonstrate his considerable abilities within the 'dark arts' - sending a warning signal to both Brown and Balls. The final suspect, Balls, could equally have seen this as a perfect moment to signal Darling's move (presumably to the Home Office) thus clearing the way for his own move to No. 11. Gordon has always faced charges of 'delaying' and being in-decisive. Today's news shall undoutedly further support such a claim.

Add to this the news that the following MPs shall be leaving Parliament, Margaret Moran, Ben Chapman, David Chaytor, Ian McCartney, John Smith, Patricia Hewitt, Beverley Hughes and Michael Martin and what do you get? A very bleak picture for the Parliamentary party.

So, with the daggers well and truly being sharpened Gordon's handling of the EU elections could, perhaps, prove a key moment. Sink or swim if you like.

Drawing the battle lines

Well, she seems completely out of the loop.

I refer, of course, to Jeremy Paxman's interview with Harriet Harman. His news summary of the incident, 'Well, that was interesting' seemed suitably apt.

Interesting indeed. Take a look. (about 20mins in). Try not to laugh too much.

The hustings seemed to have kicked off last weekend with Hoon and Purnell both staking claims, much to the annoyance of Downing Street. Both, apparently, took to the new tactic of 'ducking'. Avoiding Gordon's calls until after the interviews were recorded.

It looks increasingly likely that Darling is to leave No. 11. He shall be replaced with Ed Balls. This isn't just for Ball's own greater sense of long term strategy but also I suspect an attempt to firm up Gordon's own base. Following the departure of McBride and shortly Tom Watson he shall face a difficult time without strong support.

Being Children's Secretary just isn't a strong enough position.

I also suspect it shall be an attempt to stave off the likes of Johnston and Miliband. So, in the game of fantasy cabinet re-shuffles who'll be going where? Well, Michael Crick of BBC Newsnight alluded to a number of rumours doing the rounds.

• Peter Mandelson shall move to the Foreign Office.
• David Miliband shall move to the Home Office. (Keep him sweet).
• Jacqui Smith shall return to the benchs.
• Alaister Darling shall then either go to Buisness and Enterprise or Childrens.
• James Purnell is also tipped to move across from his current responsibilies.

It shall be interesting to see whether Hazel Blears leaves Cabinet, it would certainly be seen as a provokative move - as she herself has already demonstrated.

Bet she's not smiling tonight.

Well, TR predicted this would all happen. Yeap, the expenses saga well and truly arrived.

Look what happens the minute exam season starts. Only a minor revolution in Parliament. Some will say this is hyperbole. Bull shit.

The speaker has gone.

MPs are positively shitting themselves (just look at that gob-shite Hazel's responses today. She'll be lucky to be merely deselected. I swear she once oversaw prison reform. With any luck she can have a first hand experience).

Dave is having a field day, appearing slightly less doused in the shite than Gordon. Calls for an election seem the order of the day. Expect it to become a mantra.

Labour is in open rebellion. Watch things get even worse as the likes of Field and Co battle it out for the speakers role.

All of this and there's plenty more around the corner as individual MPs realise just how dangerous a popular mood of discontent will be. TR was slightly amazed to hear the predictions of at least 1/3 of the current MPs not returning after the next election.

And, to top things off today, Tory Bear have an excellent scoop - if it's true. Nick Brown, Brown's own enforcer, needs a bit more time with the tinernet. Oops.



All in all, the shit really is hitting the fan.

+++ More shit to hit the fan +++

Just as Gordon began to hope the Smeargate story was running out of steam, his now arch nemesis Guido Fawkes runs with this banner:

'Smeargate II: More revelations on this blog tomorrow'.

Essentially, two stories are emerging from Westminster.

Firstly, and perhaps most importantly, The Times are reporting that Ed Ball, the school secretary, has been running a 'black-op' smear operation from No. 10. His aim it seems was to challenge potential rivals to the Labour leadership following the lose of next year's election.

Then secondly, and directly tied in with the previous stories leaked last weekend, it appears a great deal more from No. 10 knew of the 'Red Rag' project than has previously been claimed. The News of the World is claiming that Labour's General Secretary chaired a meeting regarding Red Rag in the company of the now infamous Dolly and McBride. Furthermore, it implicates the close ally of Gordon, Charlie Whelan.

These new revelations make it increasingly difficult for the Prime Minister to merely brush off the claims of smears as a low-level activity. Rather, it demonstrates that very senior figures within the party and government were committed to the Red Rag project and prepared to take administrative steps to establish the site and the smears.

These stories demonstrate a party and government out of control and unable to deflect attention away with new policy initiatives. James Pernell's nice attempt earlier this week (regarding drug users having benefits cut) was over 9 months old. Talk about a rehash. Perhaps most damaging though is the latest sets of polling figures that accompany these headlines.

They reveal that whilst Gordon may not (yet) be directly implicated, the emails they have done his personal standings no good what-so-ever. The Conservatives now lead with a hefty 46% compared to Labour's 26%.

Expect plenty more in the days to come as both bloggers and the main stream media have demonstrated that this story has plenty more mileage yet.

Incidentally, whilst Gordon may be facing the shit - Sebastian Vettel, the Red Bull F1 driver, looks likely to have a ball at today's Chinese Grand Prix. You can guess what Mr Relations shall be watching behind his morning paper...