A few months ago, it was no secret, Labour's chances were shot. Gordon looked to be leading Labour to a Foot-esk electoral defeat. The Tories consistently enjoyed a lead into the 40s and on a whole host of issues - crime, terrorism, the economy, social reform, etc - Cameron's Conservatives led.
So what's gone wrong?
Economic worries. Cameron's spring 'we can't go on like this' campaign - with talk of cutting hard and fast - hardly won any favour with a shaken electorate. By contrast, Darling during the same period was able to articulate a pledge to reduce the deficit on a more 'relaxed' basis. Personalities must also factor. I wonder, in the years and months to come, whether Gordon's appearance on the Piers Morgan programme will ultimately be of some use. It certainly showed a more human side to the Prime Minister and alluded to the problems of office.
The manifesto also poses problems. Having a 'draft' manifesto is perhaps one of the most novel ideas from Cameron's Conservatives to date. However, as Michael Gove's school reforms plans suggest, they open up the possible of attack much sooner - simply put: they either look shiny and dazzling or they sink into a quagmire of arguments.
The Cashcroft affair deserves a mention. Ashcroft has further served to underline perceptions of Tory elitism - the old boys network - with campaigns being afforded huge amounts of cash (far more than the unions could ever muster). Today, indications suggest a rift within the Tories about Ashcroft with those to the moderate wing of the party infuriated by his timing. The fact he has launched fresh legal action against The Indy - further prolonging the saga - hasn't gone down too well.
