+++ The Sun drops Labour +++

The Sun has officially, according to Sky's Adam Bolton, decided to drop its support for Labour after 12 years.

The paper will now champion calls for David Cameron to become PM, famously mustering that support of, 'it's the Sun that won it'.

Update: Tomorrow's headline of 'Labour's Lost It' is surely bound to hurt, specially after that fightback speech...

Gordon giveth and Gordon taketh

Billed as the speech of his career... The wolves must now be well and truly circling.

So, it's your big speech at the party's conference. You want to make a good impression, not only to the flag waving (un)faithful but to those crucial floating voters. Voters who have had their confidence shaken by what you've called the 'global economic crisis', the 'collapse of faith in politics' and the 'failure to connect' which has seemingly resulted in massive swings to the BNP in parts of the UK*.

*Notably the North-West from where I write this entry.

So, what do you do?

Well, in Gordon's case (perhaps typically of his premiership) you excite to begin with and then come crashing down on your hopes within a few sentences.

You are following, right?

Let me explain a little more. As a 'floating voter' myself some of today's speech was, I shall admit, interesting. Plans to finally drop the ID cards scheme notably got my attention as did pledges to hold a referendum on voting reform and to fund international aid.

Some, incidentally, Tory policies.

Never mind, because as we've been repeatedly told the Tories are harsh, evil bastards and Labour are the Andrex puppy of the political world.

Well, that was until this particular clanger came out of the Prime Minister's mouth. 'State housing for under-age mothers'.

It's already been called the 'Gulags for slags' scheme by some and perhaps even more worryingly it broadly seems to have been a BNP policy for quite some time. I wonder if this extract from the BNP will even make its way into the draft bill,

"The homes should not be ‘institution’ like, but at the same time there will be rules which must be adhered to; such as a curfew of approx 9pm, a dress code which states skirts must come to at least the knees & no cleavage to be on show".

Doubtful I know, but as Lancaster Unite Against Fascism have shown, it does have an awful lot of similarities. Doug Alexander has been called the manifesto man - I shall like to see him squirm his way into making this sound attractive.

Because, to me, it seems abhorrent that we should in the 21st century be seriously entertaining the idea that 'fallen women' still exist and should be 'handled' in such a manner as to create a change in their behaviour by re-education and effectively punishment and social isolation.

Perhaps I'm wrong, as the Prime Minister himself stole from Cameron's original quote, and the situation of children looking after children needs to end - but in this way? No, on this I believe Gordon has got it wrong.

++ Election rumour: 6th May ++

Sorry to be posting this so late on the blog. It was posted earlier this morning on the twitter feed (www.twitter.com/textualblog) - shameless link...

Well, this morning news broke of some interesting reading in the 'labour general election handbook' being issued at the party conference.

Well, the date seems to be May 6th - coinciding with local elections scheduled for the same date.

It's a little short of the final date Gordon could call an election, June 3rd, but it's not far off.

Talk about hanging in there until the end...

Brown's speech to the TUC

'It was like listening to the shipping forecast'. That was my favourite take on this afternoon's address by the Prime Minister to the Trade Union's Congress in Liverpool.

Listening to Radio Five Live this afternoon and Brown announce today an extra x amount of places for apprenticeships, x amount of jobs being saved (despite the Chancellor apparently warning him not to do for fear it could not be substantiated) and x amount of 'places for the future' really did read like a Soviet tractor production list. Tired and, frankly, unbelievable.

So it seems the ticket from all sides of the political spectrum is now that 'cuts' are coming. Another favourite from today's congress was a rather excitable reporter shouting 'Brown's said the C word'. Make of that what you will.

Lord Mandelson's speech earlier this week cleared the decks for Gordon's 'repositioning' today. It is not a historic movement but a neccesary re-evaluation of economic policy. Effectively the issue has moved from the 'Labour investment vs. Tory cuts line' to one of 'Mad Tory cuts vs. Sympathetic Labour cuts'. There is some merit in this argument, as several union leaders will testify.

But again Cameron seems to have gained the high ground, ring fencing NHS spending - anyone remember his N. H. Yes. speech? - which seems to have left Team Brown relatively on the back foot. Already Shadow Chancellor (up past his bedtime) George Osbourne has claimed 'victory'. Indeed, it is a simple policy which resonates well with the general public. Daniel Hannan excluded.

I suspect in the days and weeks to come pressure will now arise on the issue of where Brown's cuts are going to be; but crucially the issue of how the Tories pledging to cut 'dark, deeper and faster' (Daft Punk style) will also arose intense interest - just how do they propose to do it? That, I suspect, will be a harded question for the opposition and one which won't be 'won' as convincingly.

Testing times at the TUC

A trip down memory lane for this post.

The Trade Union's Congress meets this week in Liverpool. It hasn't visited the city since 1906, despite the city being the epicentre for union movements during the 80s and early 90s. Indeed, Liverpool has proved a fascinating example with respect to Trade Unions; playing an active role in the most militant of unions as well as demonstrating a way to restrain union militancy.

We learn today, by the likes of none less than the TUC's leader, that the relationship between the Unions and their ultimate political masters, the Labour Party, is wearing thin.

Allow me to be clear, ignoring those who have elected out of the 'political levy', as is their right, Labour face an increase challenge now from within their own traditional support base as the Unions (which heavily fund the party) look to the question of their members' economic recovery and future prosperity.

It was Tony Blair's shining moment, Clause 4, to distance New Labour from the Unions. Indeed, the expectation that the arrival of Gordon Brown would signal a new re-engagement with unions and the party were high. Brown's 100 day plan (which ultimately went dramatically tits up) made a provision for appearing to move closer to the wishes of the Unions. But, let us not forgot, Brown is an architect of the New Labour movement. So, the firing shots from across the bowels of a disenchanted TUC today, should hardly came as a surprise to those in Downing St.

Essentially, Labour faces a difficult act in what is likely to be their dying days of office. Do they accept the predictions of a Tory landslide and move much more closer to the 'easier' position of opposition, allowing them to take a more tradition stance and attack the 'greedy city bankers' and insist of the need for public sector spending. Or, as polling data suggests, do they favour the much more 'Middle England' expectation, pledging to cut public spending and reign in public debt with higher taxes.

This last position, likely to affect TUC members the most, is where Labour faces their pressing challenge: how do you convince people likely to be worse off by your short-term actions that it's ultimately in their interest to vote for you?

So news today that Gordon is heading to Liverpool to 'speak directly' to the TUC and 'show them' is hardly likely to anyone any favours, least of all Gordon.

She's a dirty girl pulling up her knickers...

The Civil Service is, simply put, the vital organ of government. Without it, it would rather be like being paralyzed from the neck down - able to talk but little else.

With this is mind, Rachel Sylvester's comments in yesterdays Times seem particularly pertinent.

Sylvester notes the increasing paralysis setting in within Brown's government, seeing legislation delayed, or 'reviewed':

"When Alan Johnson, the Home Secretary, announced a U-turn on ID cards recently, he was only catching up with his civil servants. The Home Office had already delayed the contract to print the cards until October 2010, well after the election. At the Ministry of Defence, big procurement projects, including Trident, are on hold."

And, rather like the dirty hussy at the office party, there is an increasing tendency for senior civil servants to sneak off for a quick fumble with the shadow minister.

It is a quirk of our constitutional system that such a system should emerge, unlike the American model which allows for a defined period of hand-over the British model literally hits the ground running.

So it should hardly be taken as surprising, with only a year away before an election must be called, that many servants are looking towards their new masters.

Indeed, it does seem as though the service is now somewhat getting into bed with the Conservatives, reflecting the view held by many that Dave's ambitions shall prove fruitful.

However, with the preference towards delaying and reviewing, the current situation can be seen to fuel the Prime Minister's own current political predicament. Little 'decisive action' can be taken and instead the circle is completed again of words but with no actions. Well, certainly not until they've won re-election...

And what are the chances of that happening?

PMQ's Report Card

With the news this week, from the 'chomping at the bit' School's Secretary Ed Balls, that schools are to introduce American style 'school report cards', what better time to introduce a PMQ's version...

Many blogs, such as Lobby Dog, have already been quick to snatch up the Clown Brown clip today, which features the baffling yet comical 0% increase line. (See below)



What exactly is a 0% increase?

Reports suggest the Prime Minister's official spokesman was equally as confused when quizzed by lobby hacks this afternoon.

PMQs quickly returned to the now familiar ground of Mr Cuts vs. Mr Trust. Cameron, for his part, challenged the Prime Minister to justify reported cuts ahead of (and after) the general election. Gordon, for his retaliation, played upon the idea of their being massive cuts under a future Tory government.

Iain Dale's diary has a good Tory slant on today's proceedings (and sadly the proceedings of every PMQs since Christmas...)

Both arguments seemed largely effective with their own backers but, perhaps as Nick Clegg argued, it is somewhat artificial to assume the outside world is caught up in this discussion.

Clegg, with his questions, seemingly attacked the Tories for cuts, attacked Labour for not being honest and then suggested the need for future cuts now. It was, at best, a shaky position.

Perhaps the most interesting question of the day came from a Labour backbencher (I've forgotten his name, it's been a long, hot day!). He proposed a return to Tuesday and Thursday version of PMQs - did away with under Thatcher. Gordon's responce? 'It's a matter for the speaker'. Well, John, if there was ever a move an' all...

Johnson announces ID Card u-turn.

Chris Huhne, Lib Dem Home Affairs spokesman, summed it up quite nicely,

"This is another nail in the coffin for the government's illiberal ID cards policy"

So, it looks as though ID cards are slowly being shown the door, asked to sit down and slowly forgotten about.

Make no mistake, removing the compulsory element of these cards signals the death nail for ID cards, with continuous polls revealing their unpopularity - particularly when the cost of the proposal, estimated to be near £100, was factored in.

However, the announcement today is an interesting one for several reasons. Leaving aside the obvious issue of appearing 'tough on terror', Alan Johnson appears to have made a distinctive move towards, pardon the pun, burying the hatchet that the Home Office is a graveyard.

When Johnson was shuffled across in the recent botched reshuffle considered opinion held the view that it was an attempt to 'neutralise' the former Postie. Reports however suggest the u-turn was not at the behest of the Prime Minister, rather a clear and vocal reminder that Mr Johnson remains very much aware for his own political career.

But, like so much of the government's current strategy, what remains crucial is where Mr Mandelson's hands lie.

Election issues starting to emerge...

Following this weeks PMQs (and many others) a clearer picture is beginning to emerge of the impending electoral battle lines.

Despite Ed Ball's incessant bobbing around this week, a Brown election campaign would almost certainly lead with the charge of the Tories being a 10% cut vote. Gordon, and his cabinet, have repeated this at almost every opportunity, seizing upon the very words of the Shadow Health Secretary.

Speaking of troublesome Health Secretaries, Gordon must have been ringing his fingers with the news that Alan 'I'll stop you at any cost' Miburn is to step down.

Back to the election issues though...

Cameron proves slightly more difficult. He has led on various fronts. The charge of landing the country with the highest level of national debt has been tried and seemed to largely appease the core vote. Nothing more though.

Incidentally, the Lib Dems now seem to be picking up on this theme, hoping to attract disaffected Tories as well as Labour voters?

So, considering recent campaign material, it seems more and more likely that Dave's campaign shall focus on one simple idea: Trust. He has repeatedly attacked Gordon at the dispatch box over the issue of capital investment, seeming to suggest that Gordon had misled the house.

Whether these themes can be relayed into the wider consciousness remains to be seen.

However, one fact does stand out. With ministers openly posturing for positions and election bandwagons being proverbially loaded up, an election must surely be in the offing some time soon?