Gordon's new puppet (courtesy of Taiwanese TV)

Confirmed: Tory lead still only 6pc

A lot of Tory folk got very excited last night when a YouGov poll seemed to suggest the Tories were back up into a double figure lead following Bullygate. 

However, Peter Kellner has confirmed the figures to be inaccurate. Rather, they show no difference between the set released on Saturday night. 


The fact that these figures have remained the same must come as a much needed break for Labour and a let down for the Tories - and Lib Dems. 


So, they stand as: 

CON:        39% (39) 

LAB:         33% (33) 

LIB DEM: 17% (17) 

However, caution, I suspect - although it might not be being taken 'as seriously' at the moment - the label of 'bully' might be seen to have a wider resonance - particularly with floating voters around the time of the election.

Will bully-gate have an impact?

Will the bully-gate allegations actually have any impact? 


That is a question I have been wondering ever since the Rawnsley extract was published on Sunday. 


It's hardly flattering to be described as a bully, and stands in sharp contrast to both the profiles of Nick (who) Clegg and Dave. 


Political Betting point towards a good analysis. Essentially, from a pure stats point of view, it's simply too early to tell. 

We should see two new polls tonight - the monthly ICM survey for the Guardian and the YouGov daily survey for the Sun. Fieldwork for the former started on Friday and continued until last night while I’m not sure about the timings for the latter.

I suspect though the old maxim, as stories continue to swirl back and to, might come to mind: no news is good news... 

+++Bullygate update+++

I'm not really sure it warrants its own 'gate' but we'll run with it for now.

Questions remain as the timing, and patronage, of Christine Pratt's statement on the bullying allegations swirling around Westminster. Her charity, The National Bullying Helpline, seemingly has links with the Conservatives - although, as some have been at pains to point out, there remains no link between the two.

One other piece of news, the Cabinet Office have no officially issued a rebuttal of the Andrew Rawnsley claim that the PM was issued with a warning, stating that: "It is completely untrue to say that the Cabinet Secretary ever gave the prime minister a verbal warning about his behaviour".

Update: 
There's a lot of chatter, admittedly on twitter, about an election announcement tomorrow. Quote, 'it'd certainly kill the bully stories'. Labour do seem to have bought a lot of billboard space recently (as you'd perhaps expect anyway). Personally, I'm skeptical but it is doing the rounds...