Brown's speech to the TUC

'It was like listening to the shipping forecast'. That was my favourite take on this afternoon's address by the Prime Minister to the Trade Union's Congress in Liverpool.

Listening to Radio Five Live this afternoon and Brown announce today an extra x amount of places for apprenticeships, x amount of jobs being saved (despite the Chancellor apparently warning him not to do for fear it could not be substantiated) and x amount of 'places for the future' really did read like a Soviet tractor production list. Tired and, frankly, unbelievable.

So it seems the ticket from all sides of the political spectrum is now that 'cuts' are coming. Another favourite from today's congress was a rather excitable reporter shouting 'Brown's said the C word'. Make of that what you will.

Lord Mandelson's speech earlier this week cleared the decks for Gordon's 'repositioning' today. It is not a historic movement but a neccesary re-evaluation of economic policy. Effectively the issue has moved from the 'Labour investment vs. Tory cuts line' to one of 'Mad Tory cuts vs. Sympathetic Labour cuts'. There is some merit in this argument, as several union leaders will testify.

But again Cameron seems to have gained the high ground, ring fencing NHS spending - anyone remember his N. H. Yes. speech? - which seems to have left Team Brown relatively on the back foot. Already Shadow Chancellor (up past his bedtime) George Osbourne has claimed 'victory'. Indeed, it is a simple policy which resonates well with the general public. Daniel Hannan excluded.

I suspect in the days and weeks to come pressure will now arise on the issue of where Brown's cuts are going to be; but crucially the issue of how the Tories pledging to cut 'dark, deeper and faster' (Daft Punk style) will also arose intense interest - just how do they propose to do it? That, I suspect, will be a harded question for the opposition and one which won't be 'won' as convincingly.

Testing times at the TUC

A trip down memory lane for this post.

The Trade Union's Congress meets this week in Liverpool. It hasn't visited the city since 1906, despite the city being the epicentre for union movements during the 80s and early 90s. Indeed, Liverpool has proved a fascinating example with respect to Trade Unions; playing an active role in the most militant of unions as well as demonstrating a way to restrain union militancy.

We learn today, by the likes of none less than the TUC's leader, that the relationship between the Unions and their ultimate political masters, the Labour Party, is wearing thin.

Allow me to be clear, ignoring those who have elected out of the 'political levy', as is their right, Labour face an increase challenge now from within their own traditional support base as the Unions (which heavily fund the party) look to the question of their members' economic recovery and future prosperity.

It was Tony Blair's shining moment, Clause 4, to distance New Labour from the Unions. Indeed, the expectation that the arrival of Gordon Brown would signal a new re-engagement with unions and the party were high. Brown's 100 day plan (which ultimately went dramatically tits up) made a provision for appearing to move closer to the wishes of the Unions. But, let us not forgot, Brown is an architect of the New Labour movement. So, the firing shots from across the bowels of a disenchanted TUC today, should hardly came as a surprise to those in Downing St.

Essentially, Labour faces a difficult act in what is likely to be their dying days of office. Do they accept the predictions of a Tory landslide and move much more closer to the 'easier' position of opposition, allowing them to take a more tradition stance and attack the 'greedy city bankers' and insist of the need for public sector spending. Or, as polling data suggests, do they favour the much more 'Middle England' expectation, pledging to cut public spending and reign in public debt with higher taxes.

This last position, likely to affect TUC members the most, is where Labour faces their pressing challenge: how do you convince people likely to be worse off by your short-term actions that it's ultimately in their interest to vote for you?

So news today that Gordon is heading to Liverpool to 'speak directly' to the TUC and 'show them' is hardly likely to anyone any favours, least of all Gordon.

Free fall is a must.

Well, it has to be said. The BBC has come up trumps with its latest helping of drama, 'Free fall'.

Set in the pre-bubble bursting age of reduced rate mortgages and rocketing investments Free fall takes a startling and provocative look at the events that caused our lives to spiral out of control. With pace, real edge and emotional punch, it gives a unique insight into how we came so perilously close to the edge of financial meltdown not just for those in the ivory towers of The City but of the houses, flats and, dare I say it, dreams of people throughout the country.

Anyway, enough of a write-up. Compelling viewing which is highly recommended.

Bet she's not smiling tonight.

Well, TR predicted this would all happen. Yeap, the expenses saga well and truly arrived.

Look what happens the minute exam season starts. Only a minor revolution in Parliament. Some will say this is hyperbole. Bull shit.

The speaker has gone.

MPs are positively shitting themselves (just look at that gob-shite Hazel's responses today. She'll be lucky to be merely deselected. I swear she once oversaw prison reform. With any luck she can have a first hand experience).

Dave is having a field day, appearing slightly less doused in the shite than Gordon. Calls for an election seem the order of the day. Expect it to become a mantra.

Labour is in open rebellion. Watch things get even worse as the likes of Field and Co battle it out for the speakers role.

All of this and there's plenty more around the corner as individual MPs realise just how dangerous a popular mood of discontent will be. TR was slightly amazed to hear the predictions of at least 1/3 of the current MPs not returning after the next election.

And, to top things off today, Tory Bear have an excellent scoop - if it's true. Nick Brown, Brown's own enforcer, needs a bit more time with the tinernet. Oops.



All in all, the shit really is hitting the fan.

Expect tax increases, who ever wins

The announcement, this weekend, that the Conservatives were not likely to take inheritance tax seriously demonstrates a general confusion within the party over taxation. It is not a new development. Shadow Business Secretary Charles Clarke let the cat out of the bag with the announcement, probably on sound backing from those within the upper strata of the party. Indeed, privately the apparent u-turn over inheritance tax is not a new thing and has been predicted by several leading economists, not to mention economic historians.

The BBC’s Mike Crick quite neatly demonstrated what the Tories have been worrying about for some time, empty ministerial boxes, if they gain power. It is fair to say that the last 12 years of Labour rule have witnessed unprecedented levels of public expenditure. And, leaving aside the debate over whether this was necessary, it now seems pertinent to note the old adage – we’re about reaping what we’ve sown. The IMF recently noted that Britain would be the worst placed to respond to any ‘green shoots’ in economic recovery. Indeed, as another stimulus package has been launched in the United States there now appears to be increasingly vocal calls from within Europe that Britain should restrain its economic approach.

Niall Ferguson, that great epitome of economic history, commented on Channel 4 News yesterday that “Big government is here to stay”. This indeed may be the course of action taken, employing a Keynesian approach of state sponsored works and spending to relieve the economic outlook. But this doesn’t match up with Dave’s ideas. Shortly following his leadership victory a raft of new policies seemed to indicate future tax cuts, a raise in the inheritance tax threshold and even a tax break for some working family. Any future government shall now find this an impossible task. Indeed, to fund the continued level of stabilisation of our banks we’re likely to see an even further squeeze in public spending. Higher Education has begun to witness such cuts. I attended a Parliamentary Select Committee meeting on HE funding yesterday and the overriding consensus from Liverpool’s senior academics was the need for greater levels of investment. In other words, higher tuition fees for students.

So, whilst some may be treating Clarke’s slip as a major change in Tory policy it is worth noting that any future government (and remember, we shall have one within a year and a half) is going to have to increase taxes. Like it or lump it. It’s not likely to be the Conservatives confused as the way ahead in the future but also quite a few political strategists....

Freddy vs. Cherie

Full credit goes to Beau Bo D'or for this wonderful animation.



It serves the point I'm about to make quite well. Guido are reporting that Cherie Blair, remember that stololt of the free-market?, is to take RBS to court.

The papers presented to the Court in New York allege greed and hubris on the part of the RBS board.

What about failure to regulate in No. 10?