Johnson announces ID Card u-turn.

Chris Huhne, Lib Dem Home Affairs spokesman, summed it up quite nicely,

"This is another nail in the coffin for the government's illiberal ID cards policy"

So, it looks as though ID cards are slowly being shown the door, asked to sit down and slowly forgotten about.

Make no mistake, removing the compulsory element of these cards signals the death nail for ID cards, with continuous polls revealing their unpopularity - particularly when the cost of the proposal, estimated to be near £100, was factored in.

However, the announcement today is an interesting one for several reasons. Leaving aside the obvious issue of appearing 'tough on terror', Alan Johnson appears to have made a distinctive move towards, pardon the pun, burying the hatchet that the Home Office is a graveyard.

When Johnson was shuffled across in the recent botched reshuffle considered opinion held the view that it was an attempt to 'neutralise' the former Postie. Reports however suggest the u-turn was not at the behest of the Prime Minister, rather a clear and vocal reminder that Mr Johnson remains very much aware for his own political career.

But, like so much of the government's current strategy, what remains crucial is where Mr Mandelson's hands lie.

Election issues starting to emerge...

Following this weeks PMQs (and many others) a clearer picture is beginning to emerge of the impending electoral battle lines.

Despite Ed Ball's incessant bobbing around this week, a Brown election campaign would almost certainly lead with the charge of the Tories being a 10% cut vote. Gordon, and his cabinet, have repeated this at almost every opportunity, seizing upon the very words of the Shadow Health Secretary.

Speaking of troublesome Health Secretaries, Gordon must have been ringing his fingers with the news that Alan 'I'll stop you at any cost' Miburn is to step down.

Back to the election issues though...

Cameron proves slightly more difficult. He has led on various fronts. The charge of landing the country with the highest level of national debt has been tried and seemed to largely appease the core vote. Nothing more though.

Incidentally, the Lib Dems now seem to be picking up on this theme, hoping to attract disaffected Tories as well as Labour voters?

So, considering recent campaign material, it seems more and more likely that Dave's campaign shall focus on one simple idea: Trust. He has repeatedly attacked Gordon at the dispatch box over the issue of capital investment, seeming to suggest that Gordon had misled the house.

Whether these themes can be relayed into the wider consciousness remains to be seen.

However, one fact does stand out. With ministers openly posturing for positions and election bandwagons being proverbially loaded up, an election must surely be in the offing some time soon?

John Bercow is elected speaker.

Update: Well, it appears as though Sir George did rather better than expected. Still beaten by John Bercow though.

Still, I did rather find myself siding with the 'anyone but Beckett' camp, something which became painfully apparent after the second round of voting.

Bercow faces an enormous challenge; that is undeniable. But, for tonight, let the pomp and circumstance continue.

If Beckett is elected it will be a sad day.

Well, we're now in the final furlong to elect a new Speaker of the House.

If, as the Bookies are predicting, Margaret Beckett is elected it shall be sad day for the back-benches and, in my opinion, Parliament at large.

The government lap-dog shall face a crisis in public opinion unprecedented in recent political history. Expect one of the most controversial speakers' elections of modern times. If she can muster the support of more than 50% of the House, then I strongly doubt she'll be the person to drive support through for greater reform.

For my money, I'd personally like to see Alan Haselhurst elected. YouTube him, he seems a sound choice!

Observer: Blair pushed for secret inquiry

The Observer this morning reports that former PM Tony Blair pushed for the much anticipated Iraq War inquiry to be held in private.

The paper alleges that Blair communicated through Sir Gus O Donnell, imploring Brown to keep the inquiry private, something Brown duly ceded to.

If the story is correct it demonstrates two aspects.

Firstly, Brown is now too weak. He fears the Blairite element and worries about angering the 'loyal', so to speak.

Secondly, and this is perhaps more telling, it suggests that Blair feels a degree of nerves not only for himself but for the people who surrounded him during the conflict. Remember, our current Justice, Foreign, Home, Defense and numerous other secretaries were all part of the Blair cabinet. As was our current Prime Minister.

Now why would he be so nervous for their futures?

Beckett now bookies favourite

Depressingly, Political Betting are reporting that Margaret Beckett is now the favourite to assume the title of Madam Speaker.

It comes despite new reports from the Telegraph which, again, reiterates the degree of Beckett et als involvement in the expenses scandal. None of the candidates have been 'whiter than white'.

Still, like last Wednesday, what strikes me amongst the claims is the sheer costs of items claimed. Just where are you buying £1000 worth of plants?

Redacting this week

This week has been another of high politics.

The feeling of lunging from one crisis to another has set not just with the government but with Parliament itself. Domestic politics seemed to cover old ground, u-turns, Iraq and MPs expenses. Foreign Affairs have also demonstrated a high-point in politics, demonstrations in Tehran, new agreements in Ireland on the Lisbon Treaty and even the Grande Dame of French politics, Mrs Chiraq, keeping the husband in line.

The announcement, at the start of this week, of an inquiry into the Iraq War was interesting in several respects. For Gordon's own reputation it was perhaps damaging. It demonstrated he had held no consultation with own, let alone others, party.

The nature of the inquiry, in private and by a Privy Council body, did no favours for the idea of openness and transparency. The later u-turn, agreeing that parts of the inquiry could be held in public, came after a heavy and largely unprecedented measure of criticism from leading former civil servents and former Army high brass itself.

Speaker Martin's final days have also done little for the reputation of MPs. The delicious hypocrocy of Cameron et al praising his abilities seemed at odds with the line taken only a few weeks ago.

Speaking of Speaker Martin, the man effectively in charge of the House, I wondered if he knew of the process of redaction. Most MPs vermentally assert they had no knowledge of the sheer level of black ink that would be applied to receipt and forms themselves. This again seems a contradiction to the idea of openess in Parliament.

However, this proves crucial in understanding the expenses scandal. Aside from police investigating several MPs, the process of redaction demonstrates that MPs have not been able to largely regulate themselves. The House authorities seem, at no point, to have grasped the seriousness of the level of public distrust and anger, and continue to be blistfully unaware.

Turning to Iran, Martin Amos, the author and poet, made an ominous prediction on the BBC's This Week. The strength of force in Tehran plays, he said, a crucial role.

Indeed, the old guard have so far with held back from a full on assault, perhaps cautious of the lessons of the Revolutionary Bodies own history, emerging from the over-throw of a deeply unpopular ruler. In the coming days and weeks, particular after the intervention of the Supreme Leader, it shall be interesting to see how authorites, and protestors, re-act.

The country now risks being very close to completely overthrowing the Islamic system all together or again surpressing the voices of a very considerable proportion.

Who knows what next week could only hold...

Rumours from the village

Morning all,

Well, in place of a normal post, here's a run down of this mornings main leaks, sorry stories.

The Spectator are reporting that Damian 'Trigger finger' McBride is back, with an email account.

Gordon Brown shall, in around 10 minutes, set out details of the Iraq inquiry. It shall undoutedly appease some factions of the party whilst being a barbed shot at the Blairite elements.

Isn't that right Former Defense Secretary Geoff Hoon...

Speaker Beckett?

This weekend, in the strongest signal yet of fear amongst the Labour ranks, former Housing Minister Margaret Beckett predicted a hung parliament.

Writing in The Times, Beckett displays the arrogant tone she has taken to adopting ever since her 'arrival' as Foreign Secretary in the dying days of the Blair government.

Her objective, to me, seems amazingly transparent. In emphasising the current predictions of doom and gloom Beckett hopes to further her stated ambition of becoming the Common's speaker.

What was it that Thatcher said about the oxygen of publicity?

Beckett's attempts at self promotion aside, she would be ill placed as a speaker for a new Parliament. Throughout the previous 12 years Beckett has remained a loyal backbencher, whip and minister. Unlike some of her notable counter-parts she has never, to date, criticised Government policy or personalities. Topped with the news that she herself also has questions surrounding the MPs expenses saga and it becomes a CV heading straight for the rejected pile.

No, she would not be 'best placed' (as she says) to reform and work with who-ever takes the top job. Saying all this, either are much of the other candidates...

Well, leaving aside the election of the speaker, Beckett's comments are interesting.

Predicting a hung Parliament has been something of a echo since as early as 2005. I suspect it would be no bad thing for our democracy to once again see a hung Parliament. The working of Cameron, a future Labour leader and possibly even Clegg could be the shot in the arm the country needs, seeing democractic renewal before their eyes. It could, just as easily, casade in one big infurno of political hustings and leave the 'real issues of the day' outside.

Political analysis have a proved record of getting wrong but I suspect, at the minimum, a smaller Conservative majority as a winner party with negotiations crucial for the future...

Speakers and Parliaments aside, how much longer should we continue to run with the 'Night of the Plastic Spoons' header? We has predicted taking it down on Friday but, in the words of Prime Minister Mandelson, 'there continues to be elements plotting Brown's downfall'.

Labour looks over the edge

Gordon Brown is meeting Labour members right now.

Last night, as the final result was declared in Manchester for the North-West region, one MP commented that a 'nasty taste had been left in my mouth'.

The election of two BNP candidates, for Humberside & Yorkshire and the North West, sent a chilling signal to Westminster (and to myself, living not far away from Nick Griffin's Welshpool home). Some have labeled this as merely a protest vote or because of 'local issues'. Indeed, it is a tried and tested BNP tactic to campaign on local issues, particular to select communities. However, the low voter turn-out, coupled with a disgust at MPs' expenses, must be sought out in an explanation of why the BNP did so well.

Coupled with news that Labour had lost a 90 year old control of Wales and been beaten into third position behind the Conservatives and the UK Independence Party.

So tonight, as Labour puts Gordon through his own star chamber, there will be much expected. Gordon clearly needs to articulate a 'way out' of the current perdicament, if only for his own political neck.

I suspect however that Gordon will be able to avoid the worst of the torture chamber.

Gordon has, to a degree, had the benefit of a reshaped cabinet. Unelected yes, but loyal. This rooting out of the dissenters today claimed my MP, Jane Kennedy.

Secondly, there is no rival. There is no stalking horse for that matter. If Labour were to really consider doing the dirty they would need Alan Johnston, or others, to stand.

Finally, and again for MPs own necks, the results from the EP elections shall have reminded MPs just how close they are to losing their seats. Electing a new party leader would inevitably lead to further calls for an early election, something most MPs are now desperate to avoid.

All in all, however thin the ice, I have a feeling Gordon may be able to skate over this one, this time.

Re-arranging the deck-chairs.

Image courtesy of the excellent Bleau Bo Dor Blog

The more I watch Gordon's emergency press conference, with its talk of presbyterian conscience, and honesty, I more it becomes apparent that this is a simple re-arrangement exercise.


The Spectator note that this is the most un-democratic government since the war cabinet of the Second World War.

7 ministers are now drawn from the Lords or shall be appointed to the Lords. This creates a serious democratic deficit, something Gordon famously aimed to abolish.

It is perhaps that, this democratic deficit, which is the real loser in this botched reshuffle. He may be drawing upon the Lords but his Commons authority shall now be severely tested.

Authority is now simply flowing from Number 10. For how long is now in the hands, almost entirely, of Labour MPs.

Political mood music for tonight

You've seven unelected ministers in your new cabinet, you've not slept since 10pm yesterday and there's still the EU election results to come.

So, put you're feet on and flick on the radio...



or perhaps...



Well, it's better than listening to Peter Hain and his crib sheet.

The state of play (tonight)

I've been cautious about doing one of these all afternoon, indeed I have spent most of this afternoon simply writing the '+++ XXX resigns +++'.

It's a sad state of affairs.

However, as the dust begins to settle, for tonight at least, it might be worth just taking a recap at who and why some of these ministers are leaving

Jacqui Smith - Former Home Secretary Arguably the point at which the rebellion gained momentum. It is now widely accepted that her departure was leaked by the next candidate.

Hazel Blears - Former Communities Secretary Following Brown's very public dressing down the former Communities Secretary snapped, telling Brown he had been unfair and ran a cowboy Cabinet.

James Purnell - Former Work and Pensions Secretary Perhaps the most directly damaging resignation to date, Purnell's resignation came as a shock to Downing Street and demonstrated the level of dischord within the cabinet prior to any other moves.

John Hutton - Former Defence Secretary Hutton's resignation is perhaps the least damaging, informing us that he'd been planning to resign for 'weeks'. Focusing on his constituency, remember that phrase? He's a known Blairite with this famous phrase, 'Gordon would be a fucking awful Prime Minister'.

Geoff Hoon - Former Transport Secretary Another 'friendly' resignation, still retaining some policy rolls.

Margaret Beckett - Former Housing Minister Revenge after being fired by Gordon as Foreign Secretary?

Caroline Flint - Former Europe Minister Angered at not being offered a promotion after veherment loyalty, Flint announced that Gordon treated women as 'window dressing'.

Well, that's the total so-far. Undoutedly there'll be more to come.

Opps. Completely forgot, another name for the pile...

Tony McNulty -Former Employment Minister
Known Blairite who's said to have been annoyed for quite some time.

+++ Flint resigns +++

The toll continues....

Flint adds her name to the roll. Her resignation letter was particularly pointed. 'Female window dressing' and a 'two tier form of Government'. Ouch.

Her timing was, however, unbeatable. Right in the middle of Gordon's emergency press conference.

+++ Hoon, Beckett and McNulty resign +++ Rumours of more to follow +++

The BBC are reporting that Geoff Hoon, the Transport Secretary, is to resign.

It remains unclear whether this is 'friendly fire' or a Purnell style leadership call.

Update one: Margaret Beckett has also resigned.

Update two: Ian Gibson resigns as an MP triggering a by-election for Norwich North.

Update three: Tony McNulty resigns.

Interesting comment from one of the new 'rebels', resignations is only chapter one. Sunday, if we make it to then, should be interesting....

More to follow.

Forget Night of the Long Knifes, this is Morning of the Plastic Spoons...

Alan Clarke's dairies tell of his abject fear of the Iron Lady's abilities to reshuffle her government. Eliminating those who challenged her and promoting those who'd suitably flattered her. Much the same can be said for Tony Blair, albeit watered down, eventually having to accept he couldn't simply fire Brown as he was so emphatically urged to do so.

This 'reshuffle' however is fundamentally different in one respect; the numbers.

Don't look, straight away, at who's entering the government but rather look at who's not leaving the government. This was billed as a radical reshuffle to reassert Gordon's authority. Instead,

• Peter Mandelson remains at Trade/Industry
• Alaister Darling remains at the Treasury
• David Miliband remains at the Foreign Office and
• Jack Straw remains at the Justice Department

The reason these haven't been moved? Not because they're doing an outstanding job (remember most of this week was spent as a distancing exercise from Alaister Darling) but rather the PM fears further turmoil, resignation and ultimately his demise.

Amidst all of this, there is surely one gleaming irony. Brown's frantic efforts to shore up his support has relied heavily upon the appointment of Sir Alan Sugar, soon to be Lord Sugar. (Does anyone remember Digby Jones? Cunt he may be but he effectively did the same job - then resigned) The same Alan Sugar who's been made famous for one phrase, 'You're fired'.

+++ Purnell resigns +++

James Purnell's resignation today, we are told, came as a surprise to Downing Street. The Prime Minister apparently took soundings from Mr Purnell as early as this afternoon and the good ship Brown (are ship metaphors being overdone?) was happy with the reply of the Work or Prisions Secretary.

His resignation should not have been a surprise, and yet it appears to have been.

Talk tonight of further resignations, John Hutton, Andy Burnham and even David Miliband would undoutedly change the picture dramatically, if they occured. The change would to to such an extent that it would be impossible to see how Gordon could continue.

In short, what we are witnessing is a cabinet coup.

But, like any coup, you shall need enough support. If Miliband, retaining if Foreign Office position, comes out and supports Gordon then I suspect the immediate danger shall pass.

However, one thing which shall be undoutedly damaged is this. Only three days ago the immending cabinet reshuffle was billed as being 'radical', Chancellor Balls, Foreign Secretary Mandelson etc. If, and this is still a hypothetical if, Darling and Miliband remain in their positions it shall demonstrate something much more dangerous - Gordon is scared.

Blears stands down

Make no mistake, Hazel Blear's resignation was calculated to cause the maximum damage possible, undermining Gordon ahead of the local and EU elections and taking away any gusto he may have dreamed of in a post election reshuffle.

Rumours are abundent at Westminster of an email, circulated to all, calling for Brown to step down immediately. Alan Johnston seems to be favourite for the position of a so-called care-taker Prime Minister.

I want to suggest two senarios. Firstly, if the pressure of Gordon becomes too much, high level resignations and open challenges to his authority (rather than the cloak and dagger affair at the moment) and he resigns any new comer would have to call an election. Austin Michell MP has floated this idea all morning. It would simply be too much for the electorate to see another 'unelected' Prime Minister, even though our system has no such direct election mechanism.

Secondly, Gordon survives. He has lost an immense amount of allies (Watson, McBride and Co) but manages to carry on; importantly without the likes of Blears in cabinet opposing him. The so-called 'green shoots' emerge and with Balls as Chancellor the economic picture improves. Going to an election, like this, would prehaps provide the worst-case senario for the Tories. Green-shoots could also be Gordon's saving grace. Anyone remember John Major's prospects in '91/2?

But that is perhaps the best case.

In reality it looks increasingly likely that the Prime Minister's authority shall be severly tested. And, as Labour MPs begin to concentrate 'on their constituencies' (you'll be hearing that phrase alot in the days and weeks to come), the sense of a panic within the party shall well and truly set in.

+++ Smith to stand down +++

I suppose the top line to emerge from today's political summaries is this: Gordon's imminent reshuffle shall be wide-ranging.

Jacqui Smith, who has faced questions to her authority from a very early stage as Home Secretary. announced she is to leave at the next reshuffle of Cabinet. One question though, in the midst the news of Smith's departure, really demonstrates the current fault lines running deep under Number 10 at the moment - that question? Who leaked the news of Smith's exit?

Undoutedly such a move has taken some of Gordon's much needed 'authority', appearing to fire Smith as a radical and bold move. Simularly, changing Darling and Miliband would have sent a further signal of Gordon's 'authorative' leadership.

It also however demonstrates that Gordon's adminstration is looking to after Gordon. If Smith leaked the details she will have done so to protect her own interests, jumping before she was pushed. If Mandelson is behind the leak it shall, again, demonstrate his considerable abilities within the 'dark arts' - sending a warning signal to both Brown and Balls. The final suspect, Balls, could equally have seen this as a perfect moment to signal Darling's move (presumably to the Home Office) thus clearing the way for his own move to No. 11. Gordon has always faced charges of 'delaying' and being in-decisive. Today's news shall undoutedly further support such a claim.

Add to this the news that the following MPs shall be leaving Parliament, Margaret Moran, Ben Chapman, David Chaytor, Ian McCartney, John Smith, Patricia Hewitt, Beverley Hughes and Michael Martin and what do you get? A very bleak picture for the Parliamentary party.

So, with the daggers well and truly being sharpened Gordon's handling of the EU elections could, perhaps, prove a key moment. Sink or swim if you like.

Drawing the battle lines

Well, she seems completely out of the loop.

I refer, of course, to Jeremy Paxman's interview with Harriet Harman. His news summary of the incident, 'Well, that was interesting' seemed suitably apt.

Interesting indeed. Take a look. (about 20mins in). Try not to laugh too much.

The hustings seemed to have kicked off last weekend with Hoon and Purnell both staking claims, much to the annoyance of Downing Street. Both, apparently, took to the new tactic of 'ducking'. Avoiding Gordon's calls until after the interviews were recorded.

It looks increasingly likely that Darling is to leave No. 11. He shall be replaced with Ed Balls. This isn't just for Ball's own greater sense of long term strategy but also I suspect an attempt to firm up Gordon's own base. Following the departure of McBride and shortly Tom Watson he shall face a difficult time without strong support.

Being Children's Secretary just isn't a strong enough position.

I also suspect it shall be an attempt to stave off the likes of Johnston and Miliband. So, in the game of fantasy cabinet re-shuffles who'll be going where? Well, Michael Crick of BBC Newsnight alluded to a number of rumours doing the rounds.

• Peter Mandelson shall move to the Foreign Office.
• David Miliband shall move to the Home Office. (Keep him sweet).
• Jacqui Smith shall return to the benchs.
• Alaister Darling shall then either go to Buisness and Enterprise or Childrens.
• James Purnell is also tipped to move across from his current responsibilies.

It shall be interesting to see whether Hazel Blears leaves Cabinet, it would certainly be seen as a provokative move - as she herself has already demonstrated.