+++ The Sun drops Labour +++

The Sun has officially, according to Sky's Adam Bolton, decided to drop its support for Labour after 12 years.

The paper will now champion calls for David Cameron to become PM, famously mustering that support of, 'it's the Sun that won it'.

Update: Tomorrow's headline of 'Labour's Lost It' is surely bound to hurt, specially after that fightback speech...

Gordon giveth and Gordon taketh

Billed as the speech of his career... The wolves must now be well and truly circling.

So, it's your big speech at the party's conference. You want to make a good impression, not only to the flag waving (un)faithful but to those crucial floating voters. Voters who have had their confidence shaken by what you've called the 'global economic crisis', the 'collapse of faith in politics' and the 'failure to connect' which has seemingly resulted in massive swings to the BNP in parts of the UK*.

*Notably the North-West from where I write this entry.

So, what do you do?

Well, in Gordon's case (perhaps typically of his premiership) you excite to begin with and then come crashing down on your hopes within a few sentences.

You are following, right?

Let me explain a little more. As a 'floating voter' myself some of today's speech was, I shall admit, interesting. Plans to finally drop the ID cards scheme notably got my attention as did pledges to hold a referendum on voting reform and to fund international aid.

Some, incidentally, Tory policies.

Never mind, because as we've been repeatedly told the Tories are harsh, evil bastards and Labour are the Andrex puppy of the political world.

Well, that was until this particular clanger came out of the Prime Minister's mouth. 'State housing for under-age mothers'.

It's already been called the 'Gulags for slags' scheme by some and perhaps even more worryingly it broadly seems to have been a BNP policy for quite some time. I wonder if this extract from the BNP will even make its way into the draft bill,

"The homes should not be ‘institution’ like, but at the same time there will be rules which must be adhered to; such as a curfew of approx 9pm, a dress code which states skirts must come to at least the knees & no cleavage to be on show".

Doubtful I know, but as Lancaster Unite Against Fascism have shown, it does have an awful lot of similarities. Doug Alexander has been called the manifesto man - I shall like to see him squirm his way into making this sound attractive.

Because, to me, it seems abhorrent that we should in the 21st century be seriously entertaining the idea that 'fallen women' still exist and should be 'handled' in such a manner as to create a change in their behaviour by re-education and effectively punishment and social isolation.

Perhaps I'm wrong, as the Prime Minister himself stole from Cameron's original quote, and the situation of children looking after children needs to end - but in this way? No, on this I believe Gordon has got it wrong.

++ Election rumour: 6th May ++

Sorry to be posting this so late on the blog. It was posted earlier this morning on the twitter feed (www.twitter.com/textualblog) - shameless link...

Well, this morning news broke of some interesting reading in the 'labour general election handbook' being issued at the party conference.

Well, the date seems to be May 6th - coinciding with local elections scheduled for the same date.

It's a little short of the final date Gordon could call an election, June 3rd, but it's not far off.

Talk about hanging in there until the end...

Will she stay or will she go now

In essence this latest political row is rather, well, trivial.

Baroness Scotland, the UK's most senior legal officer, has been found to have broken the law.

The UK Border Agency have picked up on the fact that she seemingly employed a maid without following due procedure. Photocopying documents, to be precise.

So, as it stands, the Baroness has coughed up a £5000 fine and Gordon is said to be 'satisfied' with her punishment. It does however present one interesting situation, the UK's top law bod now has a criminal record.

The question though which will be on many lips is this: for how long can you continue to defend a minister before it becomes too damaging? Alasteir Campbell used to give '2 weeks of running headlines', I suspect Baroness Scotland will have a much smaller window.

Cuts away!

A few have already picked up on this but I thought I'd give it my own go....

Obama on Kanye

As much as I love the man's music, Kanye's outburst at the MTV awards was well a bit twatish. So, it's nice to know the President feels the same...

CLICK.

Brown's speech to the TUC

'It was like listening to the shipping forecast'. That was my favourite take on this afternoon's address by the Prime Minister to the Trade Union's Congress in Liverpool.

Listening to Radio Five Live this afternoon and Brown announce today an extra x amount of places for apprenticeships, x amount of jobs being saved (despite the Chancellor apparently warning him not to do for fear it could not be substantiated) and x amount of 'places for the future' really did read like a Soviet tractor production list. Tired and, frankly, unbelievable.

So it seems the ticket from all sides of the political spectrum is now that 'cuts' are coming. Another favourite from today's congress was a rather excitable reporter shouting 'Brown's said the C word'. Make of that what you will.

Lord Mandelson's speech earlier this week cleared the decks for Gordon's 'repositioning' today. It is not a historic movement but a neccesary re-evaluation of economic policy. Effectively the issue has moved from the 'Labour investment vs. Tory cuts line' to one of 'Mad Tory cuts vs. Sympathetic Labour cuts'. There is some merit in this argument, as several union leaders will testify.

But again Cameron seems to have gained the high ground, ring fencing NHS spending - anyone remember his N. H. Yes. speech? - which seems to have left Team Brown relatively on the back foot. Already Shadow Chancellor (up past his bedtime) George Osbourne has claimed 'victory'. Indeed, it is a simple policy which resonates well with the general public. Daniel Hannan excluded.

I suspect in the days and weeks to come pressure will now arise on the issue of where Brown's cuts are going to be; but crucially the issue of how the Tories pledging to cut 'dark, deeper and faster' (Daft Punk style) will also arose intense interest - just how do they propose to do it? That, I suspect, will be a harded question for the opposition and one which won't be 'won' as convincingly.

More news from the TUC

Incidentally, as an aside from the TUC post below, I'm aiming to be at the Congress on Wednesday and hopefully speaking to a former government minister. Watch this space!

Testing times at the TUC

A trip down memory lane for this post.

The Trade Union's Congress meets this week in Liverpool. It hasn't visited the city since 1906, despite the city being the epicentre for union movements during the 80s and early 90s. Indeed, Liverpool has proved a fascinating example with respect to Trade Unions; playing an active role in the most militant of unions as well as demonstrating a way to restrain union militancy.

We learn today, by the likes of none less than the TUC's leader, that the relationship between the Unions and their ultimate political masters, the Labour Party, is wearing thin.

Allow me to be clear, ignoring those who have elected out of the 'political levy', as is their right, Labour face an increase challenge now from within their own traditional support base as the Unions (which heavily fund the party) look to the question of their members' economic recovery and future prosperity.

It was Tony Blair's shining moment, Clause 4, to distance New Labour from the Unions. Indeed, the expectation that the arrival of Gordon Brown would signal a new re-engagement with unions and the party were high. Brown's 100 day plan (which ultimately went dramatically tits up) made a provision for appearing to move closer to the wishes of the Unions. But, let us not forgot, Brown is an architect of the New Labour movement. So, the firing shots from across the bowels of a disenchanted TUC today, should hardly came as a surprise to those in Downing St.

Essentially, Labour faces a difficult act in what is likely to be their dying days of office. Do they accept the predictions of a Tory landslide and move much more closer to the 'easier' position of opposition, allowing them to take a more tradition stance and attack the 'greedy city bankers' and insist of the need for public sector spending. Or, as polling data suggests, do they favour the much more 'Middle England' expectation, pledging to cut public spending and reign in public debt with higher taxes.

This last position, likely to affect TUC members the most, is where Labour faces their pressing challenge: how do you convince people likely to be worse off by your short-term actions that it's ultimately in their interest to vote for you?

So news today that Gordon is heading to Liverpool to 'speak directly' to the TUC and 'show them' is hardly likely to anyone any favours, least of all Gordon.

+++ Unremarkable newsflash of the week +++

Russian President, sorry Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin signals that he is to run for re-election as President.

The BBC's Bridget Kendell has the full story.

Politics from a different sport

One Brown is sorting the numbers while the other is seemingly fiddling them.

Other rumours have it that anti-depressants are free-flowing across Whitehall, causing effects such as muscle seizures, rapidly mood alterations and a habit for awful photo opportunities... Now I wonder who that could be...

But, for the purposes of this post, I wish to turn attentions to something far more scandalous than the bubbling antics of Team Brown. Rather, 'crash-gate'.

Allow me to explain a little for those not up to speed of this latest 'gate' gate. Primarily it involves an accusation of foul play, cheating, endangering life and greed oh and a formula one car and driver.

Nelson Piquet Jr., formerly of Renault F1, has accused his former team of cheating; ordering him to crash during the 2008 Singapore grand-prix causing a deployment of the safety car. This deployment allowed his former world champ. team-mate Fernando Alonso an advantage, being pitted moments before the accident.

Tonight, as things stand, an ugly exchange of words have emerged. The Piquets (Dad and Son) maintain that Jr. was acting under team orders whilst Renault, for their part, deny the claim and have launched legal action. The FiA is due to told a trial on Monday 21st Sept to apportion blame.

Perhaps what recent stories of cheating, both in F1 and Rugby League, best demonstrate is a determined ability to win by what-ever means. It's a political quality all to apparent at the moment, particularly if the words of the former Farming Minister Jayne Kennedy are to be taken as a whole.

One thing is 'for sure' though (a phrase you'll hear an amazing amount of in F1), the ensuing fireworks from F1 shall provide slightly more attractive viewing than the current wranglings over budget responsibilities...

Thatcher and the wall

With news today of simmering Anglo-German rivalry over the future of GM's assets in Europe, The Times has an interesting perspective on one of the most potent divisions in post-war Europe - the Berlin Wall.

Roger Boyes notes how Mrs Thatcher expressed, in no uncertain terms, her fears of a unified Germany - seemingly much to the annoyance of German Chancellor Mr Kohl.

One particular view of one of the most symbolic mass movements of the 20th century demonstrates the challenges faced after that fateful day in 1989...

“East Germany was not an accretion of strength but, rather, 12 enormous Liverpools, handed over to West Germany in a tatty cardboard box, with a great red ribbon round it, marked ‘From Russia with Love".

What a difference a day (or month) doesn't make.

I haven't slept well for about a month now, and that won't be the only confession in this post.

I would like, here and now, to officially announce that I am a wimp. I am scared to death of many things. In fact, such is my horror at certain animals and 'experiences' that I suspect I shall always be a wimp. So, you ask, how much of a wimp are you?

Well, allow me to give you an example. Yesterday (having walked home from the nearest village) I came across a dog. It was in a garden but I secretly suspected that at any minute the beast could easily jump the wall and rip my throat out. Such was my nerves I tried several things.

Firstly, I tried to walk towards the dog: hoping it would back off. It didn't. So, then I tried walking on the other side of the country lane. I quickly realised this lane was far too narrow to afford me adequate time to run to safety if the dog decided to take a running jump. In the end, I waited half an hour - stood at the top of the lane - until the owner called the dog in for its tea.

That is a feeling I suspect a certain Mr Brown may now be feeling.

At no time in his premiership (even during the aborted EU elections coup) has the prospect of Brown being replaced seemed so real and so dangerous. And it seems others know of Brown's fears as well now.

Monday 12th October is the date, reportedly, penciled in for a re-run for Team Brown Out. The worry in Downing St. though (so near an election) is that it won't just be the usual suspects, Team Brown Out, so to speak, now but this time the wider parliamentary party.

Why? Well, there are a number of factors pointing towards this latest set of plots being potentially the most dangerous.

Firstly, unlike Thatcher, the point at which Labour could have installed a new leader and had a good run-up to a general election (with a fresh feel and honeymoon period) is well and truly shot. Brown saw pains to that when he bottled out of calling a general election after he gained office.

Instead, Brown is now an electoral liability. The Guardian and ICM polls of recent months and weeks have hardly made for 'improved' reading in Downing St and crucially with failed plotters.

For Labour to install a new leader some months ago would have, undoutedly, required an almost immediate general election. This I suspect was then Brown's saving song. Now though, with an election impending, this could be his undoing. With an election due anyway, why not swop for someone claw back some of the electoral loss and (hopefully) provide a strong basis for future direction? (I speak, of course, of Labour being the opposition, rather than the governing party in such a prediction).

One telling extract from Kettle's analysis highlights the current predicament for Brown:

"Yet even this minister, no rebel, acknowledges that the mood could still change. Another Brown loyalist says the prime minister's position depends on the public, which, when you think about it, is hardly a ringing endorsement. A third loyalist says that if he thought Brown was dragging the party down, he would tell him he must do the decent thing and quit. One Labour official whom I texted yesterday for his current assessment of "the Gordon question" replied simply: "Aaaaaaarrrrgggghhhh!""

It remains to be seen yet whether those key players from the June reshuffle (and those not so key) will have anything like the gusto to swing the axe this time around, but watch this space....