+++ More shit to hit the fan +++

Just as Gordon began to hope the Smeargate story was running out of steam, his now arch nemesis Guido Fawkes runs with this banner:

'Smeargate II: More revelations on this blog tomorrow'.

Essentially, two stories are emerging from Westminster.

Firstly, and perhaps most importantly, The Times are reporting that Ed Ball, the school secretary, has been running a 'black-op' smear operation from No. 10. His aim it seems was to challenge potential rivals to the Labour leadership following the lose of next year's election.

Then secondly, and directly tied in with the previous stories leaked last weekend, it appears a great deal more from No. 10 knew of the 'Red Rag' project than has previously been claimed. The News of the World is claiming that Labour's General Secretary chaired a meeting regarding Red Rag in the company of the now infamous Dolly and McBride. Furthermore, it implicates the close ally of Gordon, Charlie Whelan.

These new revelations make it increasingly difficult for the Prime Minister to merely brush off the claims of smears as a low-level activity. Rather, it demonstrates that very senior figures within the party and government were committed to the Red Rag project and prepared to take administrative steps to establish the site and the smears.

These stories demonstrate a party and government out of control and unable to deflect attention away with new policy initiatives. James Pernell's nice attempt earlier this week (regarding drug users having benefits cut) was over 9 months old. Talk about a rehash. Perhaps most damaging though is the latest sets of polling figures that accompany these headlines.

They reveal that whilst Gordon may not (yet) be directly implicated, the emails they have done his personal standings no good what-so-ever. The Conservatives now lead with a hefty 46% compared to Labour's 26%.

Expect plenty more in the days to come as both bloggers and the main stream media have demonstrated that this story has plenty more mileage yet.

Incidentally, whilst Gordon may be facing the shit - Sebastian Vettel, the Red Bull F1 driver, looks likely to have a ball at today's Chinese Grand Prix. You can guess what Mr Relations shall be watching behind his morning paper...

Welcome to the return of diplomacy

The Home Secretary is fucked. Alice Mahon has stuck the knife in. Alex Salmond has told Gordon to jog on and now it seems Labour party ballot boxes have been tampered with.

Could this be any worse for the British Labour party?

But what I find interesting is the transformation taking place on the other side of the Atlantic. As President Obama nears the end of his first 100 days in office a great deal of comment has focused on email account and backbiting (which is quite right) in London. Yet, there is a major sea-change occurring in Washington which hasn't attracted nearly as much attention in the British press.

Quite worryingly, as the Obama administration continues it's policy of 'not being Bush' the BBC reported this week that ammunition sales have soured across the States, even leaving some stores 'dry'.

Gun totting aside, Washington's approach towards a whole host of foreign and domestic policy issues warrants a degree of admiration. After all, it wasn't George Bush who brought a Castro to the table willing to discuss human rights.

I suspect many shall challenge Obama's team as liberal and, perhaps still worse, naive. However, as the recent dealings with Cuba and Venezuela demonstrate - listening and been seen to be 'prepared to engage' goes a long way in international relations. Indeed, the meeting of The Americas this week shall prove a prime testing ground for the Obama government.

It also, and this is the aspect which most interests me, appears as a much more coherent and 'active' government. Of course many issues could point towards Obama finding a similar situation to Brown. He's failed now, on numerous occasions, to get his nominees through the Houses. Yet, he still comes across as the dynamic leader even sprinkling pixie dust over less well liked European figures. *cough* Gordon *cough*.

But politics is a fickle game. Unless Obama can demonstrate real economic progress, improved international relations and a relative restoration of American prestige then I suspect the kinds of labels being applied to the Brown government shall easily make their way across the Atlantic.

After all, it's where Brown's reported to be heading in about 12 months...

Martin Bell - a warning from history.

Now, I suspect the name may not mean an awful lot to a large amount of people. You may remember him as one of the BBC's war reporters. He did however, aside from reporting on the troubles in the Balkans, successfully stand on an anti-sleaze ticket in the '97 election.

He won, overturning a Conservative majority of 20,000 in Neil Hamilton's old seat.

I wonder if many Labour MPs will have considered this in the wake of smeargate.



The smears, as Will Self points out, are nothing new. Indeed, the 'team' behind the attacks are somewhat of veterans to the new approaches to communications adopted following the '97 election.

Blair, and Brown, were determined their governments would avoid the contagious virus of sleaze. After all, they did spend much of the early 1990s documenting Conservative sleaze.

Yet, I would argue it is not sleaze itself which is so damaging. Damian McBride emerged looking like a twat but not immediately did Gordon. It is quite simple and relatively effective to simply admit you've made a mistake. It incidentally apparently shows a human side to the suit. Rather, it is the handling of the incident which shall ultimately determine the outcome of this episode.

That is where Brown comes unstuck.

Yesterday Gordon wrote to all concerned and expressed 'regret' at the incident. The pragmatics of the letter avoid any legal implication but as David Crystal, speaking on BBC Radio Four's PM programme, neatly surmised it simply doesn't do the job.

And it is the calls today, made by mainly Blairites, which ultimately shall prove far more dangerous than any blog article. Fields, Millburn and Byers have all joined the bandwagon and effectively shown Brown than there still remains deep divisions within the party. The accumulative effect of 'sleaze', as a general banner, with MPs expenses and now smeargate add to party divisons.

Remember, it was Thatcher's own party which triggered her downfall.

I suspect many ministers and Labour MPs have already begun to consider their own electability, rather than that of their party now. Gordon is seen as an electoral liability. Frank Fields eloquently put it that, 'MPs are staring into the abyss'. This kind of talk not only demonstrates discontent but, so near to an election, acts as a rallying call. There has already been open civil war under Gordon and he shall be only too aware of the underlying tensions.

Indeed, the fact that this story has now run for well over 6 full news days, and shows little sign of abbaiting, perhaps demonstrates the popular level of discontent with Gordon's management of government.

Now, where's David Milliband in all of this?

Morning view

Good morning all!

Enjoying those Cheerios? I don't suspect Gordon shall be.

Today's view comes from the rather excellent Peter Brookes of The Times. Note the two figures clearly on their way out, Dolly Draper and McBride.

Fraser Nelson has a good take on the damage limitation underway at the moment.

Interesting questions ahead....

++All shit has hit the fan++

Edit: The Sunday Times has full details of the emails and a great deal of their contents.

Jesus, the story goes, was nailed to the cross tomorrow and passed over. Tomorrow, I suspect, Damian McBride shall be nailed to the Sundays. He won't pass over quite so easily.

What a holiday story.

In essence, Guido Fawkes has used this slow news weekend to break the story that Mr McBride, and his Downing Street email account, have been rather naughty. It seems the grand scheme was to smear several Conservative MPs (including Cameron and Osbourne) with stories relating to their personal life. Rather graphic stories at that too. One MP is said to be considering legal action.

Expect full details in the News of the World and The Sunday Times.

This email was sent to Derek Drapper, amongst others. This is the same man who denies any involvement with Downing Street's backroom staff. His proposed new site, 'Red Rag' was where the smears were intended for. The site and the smears have not, until now, come to fruition.

ToryBear nicely highlights this story.

However, it is the mere plotting and planning of McBride from the Downing Street bunker, being one of Gordon's closest allies, which shall do so much damage. It already comes on warnings that the coming election shall be the dirtiest to date.

Expect plenty more tomorrow morning and a fair few red faces all round.

More blog news

Well, it's back to normal folks.

A trip to Leeds, Liverpool and York have all proved welcome distractions for Mr Relations.

But my oh my, haven't things gone tits up... Britain's top terror chief clearly hasn't heard of document wallets, more MPs have been on the fiddle (worryingly, this now seems the norm rather than the exception) and fresh questions have emerged over the handling of the G20 protests.

Nick Clegg's announcement though seems to have promise. More soon.

Handling Thatcher's legacy shall prove difficult

My mother always said it is bad to talk as if someone was already dead. So, I shall have to do some apologising whilst I'm home this weekend.

It's not entirely my fault though. The Observer's Tim Adam's revisionist analysis of Margaret Thatcher touches upon many of these themes.

Undoubtedly, over thirty years since the idea of 'Thatcherism' first emerged, her legacy continues to bitterly divide opinion. Speak to many, and she remains the milk snatcher, the mine destroyer and the originator of 'that' phrase, 'there is no such thing as society'. Of course, many would also challenge this. Without Thatcher, the arguments shall undoubtedly go, we would never have enjoyed the flourishing economic system of the late 1990s.

Incidentally, they also lay the blame for the current economic crisis at Gordon's door, rather than that of Margaret.

The overtones of the current economic crisis has brought into sharp focus the conditions of Thatcher's Britain once again. Massive inequalities have again been highlighted. Indeed, it was this week that Save the Children launched their first ever UK appeal for better food standards for children.

Much the same themes can be seen in Alan Hollinghurst's The Line of Beauty, set during the 1980s.

It is interesting then to see the likes of Andrea Riseborough's The Long Walk to Finchley attract such popular attention. Have our perceptions towards Thatcher really changed?

It was Tony Blair, in 1998, that famously said that we were now all middle-class. I suspect the economic downturn has changed such perceptions. I wonder as well if it has really changed perceptions of capitalism. Sarkosy certainly tried to make it so last week during the G20 meetings but this attempt was largely regarded as a failure, only safe-guarding limited attempts to change the 'Anglo-American' model.

So, today observers call into question once again the system which Thatcher fought so hard against. Undoubtedly Keynesian economics is once again on the march.

Whether voters shall stick with such Keynesian ideas of big government remains another question.

Incidentally, this was originally intended for publication last week - we've not paid the electric bill this month...

Blog news

Well, I'm off to a politics conference at the University of Leeds today. Lots of talk on democratization, the global economic downturn and possibly some free drinks.

After that, straight back to Liverpool and then onto Shropshire.

Barring any earth-shattering news, like Gordon's head exploding ala 'Alien 3 - The Economic Edition', I shall now be off for a few days.

Take care all!