Guardian censor attempt fails

An interesting story broke this morning.

The Guardian, in essence, were to report proceedings from Parliament which would have revealed the existence of a hitherto secret injunction.

The injunction stopped the media reporting a story unfavorable to oil traders Trafigura.

The question, which the Guardian attempted to report, was:

Labour MP Paul Farrelly,

"To ask the Secretary of State for Justice what assessment he has made of the effectiveness of legislation to protect (a) whistleblowers and (b) press freedom following the injunctions obtained in the High Court by (i) Barclays and Freshfields solicitors on 19 March 2009 on the publication of internal Barclays reports documenting alleged tax avoidance schemes and (ii) Trafigura and Carter-Ruck solicitors on 11 September 2009 on the publication of the Minton report on the alleged dumping of toxic waste in the Ivory Coast, commissioned by Trafigura."

This questioning would, through Hansard and wider reportage, therefore reveal the existence of this injunction and the secret Minton report.

Urgent questions seemed to have been bound around Parliament this morning, eventually seeing the law firm representing the oil company withdraw its opposition to the Guardian reporting the story.

It is interesting to see the actors in civil society at work here, with the press once again bolstering their claim to be the guardians (excuse the pun) of democratic ideals.

Maybe the producers of the BBC's new series of The Thick of It should consider Carter-Ruck as publicity agents rather than a bog-standard law firm...

Dozens arrested in Manchester race riots

IMAGE: Beau Bo D'or blog.

Perhaps the title is slightly misleading. I have considered it for a while. The BBC have a much fuller take on events today.

In essence the more militant right has continued its march, this time with the English Defence League. About a month ago they staged a similar sort of demonstration in Birmingham. They call for a halt to the 'islamatification' of Britain, what ever that is.

I have a journo friend who was there today, said the event was 'hair raising' stuff.

But my favourite take on today's disturbances comes from the as always excellent Beau Bo D'or blog commenting upon Sky's 'riot cam'.

As always, Sky News: First for Bullshit...

As I was saying before...

Well, Textual owes you all an apology. The blog has been as dry as the New Labour Policy Unit. Please accept my apologies for this.

Dissertation is going well(ish). Topic decided upon and a freedom of information request (hopefully) being looked at.

Now what's that news about Gordon's eye...

+++ The Sun drops Labour +++

The Sun has officially, according to Sky's Adam Bolton, decided to drop its support for Labour after 12 years.

The paper will now champion calls for David Cameron to become PM, famously mustering that support of, 'it's the Sun that won it'.

Update: Tomorrow's headline of 'Labour's Lost It' is surely bound to hurt, specially after that fightback speech...

Gordon giveth and Gordon taketh

Billed as the speech of his career... The wolves must now be well and truly circling.

So, it's your big speech at the party's conference. You want to make a good impression, not only to the flag waving (un)faithful but to those crucial floating voters. Voters who have had their confidence shaken by what you've called the 'global economic crisis', the 'collapse of faith in politics' and the 'failure to connect' which has seemingly resulted in massive swings to the BNP in parts of the UK*.

*Notably the North-West from where I write this entry.

So, what do you do?

Well, in Gordon's case (perhaps typically of his premiership) you excite to begin with and then come crashing down on your hopes within a few sentences.

You are following, right?

Let me explain a little more. As a 'floating voter' myself some of today's speech was, I shall admit, interesting. Plans to finally drop the ID cards scheme notably got my attention as did pledges to hold a referendum on voting reform and to fund international aid.

Some, incidentally, Tory policies.

Never mind, because as we've been repeatedly told the Tories are harsh, evil bastards and Labour are the Andrex puppy of the political world.

Well, that was until this particular clanger came out of the Prime Minister's mouth. 'State housing for under-age mothers'.

It's already been called the 'Gulags for slags' scheme by some and perhaps even more worryingly it broadly seems to have been a BNP policy for quite some time. I wonder if this extract from the BNP will even make its way into the draft bill,

"The homes should not be ‘institution’ like, but at the same time there will be rules which must be adhered to; such as a curfew of approx 9pm, a dress code which states skirts must come to at least the knees & no cleavage to be on show".

Doubtful I know, but as Lancaster Unite Against Fascism have shown, it does have an awful lot of similarities. Doug Alexander has been called the manifesto man - I shall like to see him squirm his way into making this sound attractive.

Because, to me, it seems abhorrent that we should in the 21st century be seriously entertaining the idea that 'fallen women' still exist and should be 'handled' in such a manner as to create a change in their behaviour by re-education and effectively punishment and social isolation.

Perhaps I'm wrong, as the Prime Minister himself stole from Cameron's original quote, and the situation of children looking after children needs to end - but in this way? No, on this I believe Gordon has got it wrong.

++ Election rumour: 6th May ++

Sorry to be posting this so late on the blog. It was posted earlier this morning on the twitter feed (www.twitter.com/textualblog) - shameless link...

Well, this morning news broke of some interesting reading in the 'labour general election handbook' being issued at the party conference.

Well, the date seems to be May 6th - coinciding with local elections scheduled for the same date.

It's a little short of the final date Gordon could call an election, June 3rd, but it's not far off.

Talk about hanging in there until the end...

Will she stay or will she go now

In essence this latest political row is rather, well, trivial.

Baroness Scotland, the UK's most senior legal officer, has been found to have broken the law.

The UK Border Agency have picked up on the fact that she seemingly employed a maid without following due procedure. Photocopying documents, to be precise.

So, as it stands, the Baroness has coughed up a £5000 fine and Gordon is said to be 'satisfied' with her punishment. It does however present one interesting situation, the UK's top law bod now has a criminal record.

The question though which will be on many lips is this: for how long can you continue to defend a minister before it becomes too damaging? Alasteir Campbell used to give '2 weeks of running headlines', I suspect Baroness Scotland will have a much smaller window.

Cuts away!

A few have already picked up on this but I thought I'd give it my own go....

Obama on Kanye

As much as I love the man's music, Kanye's outburst at the MTV awards was well a bit twatish. So, it's nice to know the President feels the same...

CLICK.

Brown's speech to the TUC

'It was like listening to the shipping forecast'. That was my favourite take on this afternoon's address by the Prime Minister to the Trade Union's Congress in Liverpool.

Listening to Radio Five Live this afternoon and Brown announce today an extra x amount of places for apprenticeships, x amount of jobs being saved (despite the Chancellor apparently warning him not to do for fear it could not be substantiated) and x amount of 'places for the future' really did read like a Soviet tractor production list. Tired and, frankly, unbelievable.

So it seems the ticket from all sides of the political spectrum is now that 'cuts' are coming. Another favourite from today's congress was a rather excitable reporter shouting 'Brown's said the C word'. Make of that what you will.

Lord Mandelson's speech earlier this week cleared the decks for Gordon's 'repositioning' today. It is not a historic movement but a neccesary re-evaluation of economic policy. Effectively the issue has moved from the 'Labour investment vs. Tory cuts line' to one of 'Mad Tory cuts vs. Sympathetic Labour cuts'. There is some merit in this argument, as several union leaders will testify.

But again Cameron seems to have gained the high ground, ring fencing NHS spending - anyone remember his N. H. Yes. speech? - which seems to have left Team Brown relatively on the back foot. Already Shadow Chancellor (up past his bedtime) George Osbourne has claimed 'victory'. Indeed, it is a simple policy which resonates well with the general public. Daniel Hannan excluded.

I suspect in the days and weeks to come pressure will now arise on the issue of where Brown's cuts are going to be; but crucially the issue of how the Tories pledging to cut 'dark, deeper and faster' (Daft Punk style) will also arose intense interest - just how do they propose to do it? That, I suspect, will be a harded question for the opposition and one which won't be 'won' as convincingly.

More news from the TUC

Incidentally, as an aside from the TUC post below, I'm aiming to be at the Congress on Wednesday and hopefully speaking to a former government minister. Watch this space!

Testing times at the TUC

A trip down memory lane for this post.

The Trade Union's Congress meets this week in Liverpool. It hasn't visited the city since 1906, despite the city being the epicentre for union movements during the 80s and early 90s. Indeed, Liverpool has proved a fascinating example with respect to Trade Unions; playing an active role in the most militant of unions as well as demonstrating a way to restrain union militancy.

We learn today, by the likes of none less than the TUC's leader, that the relationship between the Unions and their ultimate political masters, the Labour Party, is wearing thin.

Allow me to be clear, ignoring those who have elected out of the 'political levy', as is their right, Labour face an increase challenge now from within their own traditional support base as the Unions (which heavily fund the party) look to the question of their members' economic recovery and future prosperity.

It was Tony Blair's shining moment, Clause 4, to distance New Labour from the Unions. Indeed, the expectation that the arrival of Gordon Brown would signal a new re-engagement with unions and the party were high. Brown's 100 day plan (which ultimately went dramatically tits up) made a provision for appearing to move closer to the wishes of the Unions. But, let us not forgot, Brown is an architect of the New Labour movement. So, the firing shots from across the bowels of a disenchanted TUC today, should hardly came as a surprise to those in Downing St.

Essentially, Labour faces a difficult act in what is likely to be their dying days of office. Do they accept the predictions of a Tory landslide and move much more closer to the 'easier' position of opposition, allowing them to take a more tradition stance and attack the 'greedy city bankers' and insist of the need for public sector spending. Or, as polling data suggests, do they favour the much more 'Middle England' expectation, pledging to cut public spending and reign in public debt with higher taxes.

This last position, likely to affect TUC members the most, is where Labour faces their pressing challenge: how do you convince people likely to be worse off by your short-term actions that it's ultimately in their interest to vote for you?

So news today that Gordon is heading to Liverpool to 'speak directly' to the TUC and 'show them' is hardly likely to anyone any favours, least of all Gordon.

+++ Unremarkable newsflash of the week +++

Russian President, sorry Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin signals that he is to run for re-election as President.

The BBC's Bridget Kendell has the full story.

Politics from a different sport

One Brown is sorting the numbers while the other is seemingly fiddling them.

Other rumours have it that anti-depressants are free-flowing across Whitehall, causing effects such as muscle seizures, rapidly mood alterations and a habit for awful photo opportunities... Now I wonder who that could be...

But, for the purposes of this post, I wish to turn attentions to something far more scandalous than the bubbling antics of Team Brown. Rather, 'crash-gate'.

Allow me to explain a little for those not up to speed of this latest 'gate' gate. Primarily it involves an accusation of foul play, cheating, endangering life and greed oh and a formula one car and driver.

Nelson Piquet Jr., formerly of Renault F1, has accused his former team of cheating; ordering him to crash during the 2008 Singapore grand-prix causing a deployment of the safety car. This deployment allowed his former world champ. team-mate Fernando Alonso an advantage, being pitted moments before the accident.

Tonight, as things stand, an ugly exchange of words have emerged. The Piquets (Dad and Son) maintain that Jr. was acting under team orders whilst Renault, for their part, deny the claim and have launched legal action. The FiA is due to told a trial on Monday 21st Sept to apportion blame.

Perhaps what recent stories of cheating, both in F1 and Rugby League, best demonstrate is a determined ability to win by what-ever means. It's a political quality all to apparent at the moment, particularly if the words of the former Farming Minister Jayne Kennedy are to be taken as a whole.

One thing is 'for sure' though (a phrase you'll hear an amazing amount of in F1), the ensuing fireworks from F1 shall provide slightly more attractive viewing than the current wranglings over budget responsibilities...

Thatcher and the wall

With news today of simmering Anglo-German rivalry over the future of GM's assets in Europe, The Times has an interesting perspective on one of the most potent divisions in post-war Europe - the Berlin Wall.

Roger Boyes notes how Mrs Thatcher expressed, in no uncertain terms, her fears of a unified Germany - seemingly much to the annoyance of German Chancellor Mr Kohl.

One particular view of one of the most symbolic mass movements of the 20th century demonstrates the challenges faced after that fateful day in 1989...

“East Germany was not an accretion of strength but, rather, 12 enormous Liverpools, handed over to West Germany in a tatty cardboard box, with a great red ribbon round it, marked ‘From Russia with Love".

What a difference a day (or month) doesn't make.

I haven't slept well for about a month now, and that won't be the only confession in this post.

I would like, here and now, to officially announce that I am a wimp. I am scared to death of many things. In fact, such is my horror at certain animals and 'experiences' that I suspect I shall always be a wimp. So, you ask, how much of a wimp are you?

Well, allow me to give you an example. Yesterday (having walked home from the nearest village) I came across a dog. It was in a garden but I secretly suspected that at any minute the beast could easily jump the wall and rip my throat out. Such was my nerves I tried several things.

Firstly, I tried to walk towards the dog: hoping it would back off. It didn't. So, then I tried walking on the other side of the country lane. I quickly realised this lane was far too narrow to afford me adequate time to run to safety if the dog decided to take a running jump. In the end, I waited half an hour - stood at the top of the lane - until the owner called the dog in for its tea.

That is a feeling I suspect a certain Mr Brown may now be feeling.

At no time in his premiership (even during the aborted EU elections coup) has the prospect of Brown being replaced seemed so real and so dangerous. And it seems others know of Brown's fears as well now.

Monday 12th October is the date, reportedly, penciled in for a re-run for Team Brown Out. The worry in Downing St. though (so near an election) is that it won't just be the usual suspects, Team Brown Out, so to speak, now but this time the wider parliamentary party.

Why? Well, there are a number of factors pointing towards this latest set of plots being potentially the most dangerous.

Firstly, unlike Thatcher, the point at which Labour could have installed a new leader and had a good run-up to a general election (with a fresh feel and honeymoon period) is well and truly shot. Brown saw pains to that when he bottled out of calling a general election after he gained office.

Instead, Brown is now an electoral liability. The Guardian and ICM polls of recent months and weeks have hardly made for 'improved' reading in Downing St and crucially with failed plotters.

For Labour to install a new leader some months ago would have, undoutedly, required an almost immediate general election. This I suspect was then Brown's saving song. Now though, with an election impending, this could be his undoing. With an election due anyway, why not swop for someone claw back some of the electoral loss and (hopefully) provide a strong basis for future direction? (I speak, of course, of Labour being the opposition, rather than the governing party in such a prediction).

One telling extract from Kettle's analysis highlights the current predicament for Brown:

"Yet even this minister, no rebel, acknowledges that the mood could still change. Another Brown loyalist says the prime minister's position depends on the public, which, when you think about it, is hardly a ringing endorsement. A third loyalist says that if he thought Brown was dragging the party down, he would tell him he must do the decent thing and quit. One Labour official whom I texted yesterday for his current assessment of "the Gordon question" replied simply: "Aaaaaaarrrrgggghhhh!""

It remains to be seen yet whether those key players from the June reshuffle (and those not so key) will have anything like the gusto to swing the axe this time around, but watch this space....

That was the week that was.

Following on from the previous video I thought I'd do another roughly based on the same idea.

I'd love to know you thoughts - textualrelationsblog@live.co.uk (or the comments section, not that I'm desperate for comments or anything...)

Anyway, I'll be off next week so enjoy and I'll update the blog as soon as I can.

Holiday snaps...

Have just returned from Cornwall with the family. That's Mum and Dad not junior and junior, you understand.

I will crack off a blog post some time before tomorrow with any luck. Am (sort of) unpacking at the moment whilst also preparing for a christening this morning. Busy times.

Anyway, after the christening I'll be trying to get hold of the former farming minister Jane Kennedy for a feature I've been planning for the autumn (partly dissertation work, can't lie) and then throwing some kit together and heading for West Wales. Champion.

After that, I'm back for a few days and then heading back to the valleys for a bit of a family reunion. So, apologies now if it all seems a little quiet on the Western front. So to speak.

Who says holidays are relaxing!?!

Hope you're all well.

And on a vaguely political note, doesn't Mandy seem to be rather enjoying this acting-PM gig?

Cue the jokes.

The kids are off. MPs are off. Gordon is on holiday and Harriet's 'minding the shop'. Mandy's on the roam and Cameron's being a twat, on twitter of course. (Radio 4's The Now Show has an awesome take on twitter-gate, highly recommended!)

Yeap, it's silly season alright.

But before turning to the take on Mandy's surge for power or Harriet Harperson's latest ramblings, I'd like to point towards one of Skipper's excellent posts. Briefly paraphrasing, Oxford's Professor Vernon Bogdanor puts forward the view that, since 1997, Britain has undergone whole-sale constitutional reform effectively turning Britain into a quasi federal state. Personally, I can see a great deal of merit in this argument, something which seems an increasingly important factor ahead of the impending general election.

Anyway, well worth a read and something I'd recommend.

From the serious to the stupid now. Harriet Harman's seized the opportunity of setting up her tent in Downing St. this week. Gordon has popped off and we seemingly face a problem: who's now in charge. Analysing British Politics has a good take on these events. In essence though it seems a question of one thing: who'll lead Labour after Gordon has gone?

We've also seen more ministers take their own line this week. The Ministry of Defence has again faced charges of 'undercutting' service personnel and being driven by the wrong ambitions. This time by one of its own ministers, Eric Joyce. He coined current thinking as 'profoundly unfair', relating to the decision to appeal against compensation awards for injured personnel.

I see no reason why ministers can't take such a line, critiquing policy which obviously proves widely unpopular. Indeed, the decision to keep Joyce should be welcomed in an age of keeping ministers 'on message'. Of course recognizing the need for party unity (and thus ensuring the smooth running of government) I do share a great deal of empathy with ministers effectively forced to defend policies they themselves clearly object to.

And finally, staying with silly season, anyone remember those calls that the days of big bonuses should end? Someone ought to try telling this lot. Oh, wait...

Sorry for the rather short update. WiFi connection is a bit of a problem and am currently surrounded by boxes and bags. Hope you're all having a good summer so far.

It's been a bad week...

Well, after many attempts, and shamelessly following hot on the heals of the excellent We Live In Games blog, Textual has (finally) made a video post.

It's a bit naff, I know. There again with a budget of £0 and not much will power it's the best you're going to get.

Anyway, let us know what you think and we'll maybe start thinking about more for the future. Maybe.

And that was that. Part 2

UPDATE:

This leaving the blog alone gig really hasn't started well. Umm....

Since I wrote the previous piece, Orange (praise be to them) has found signal and I have received a fair few dozen texts. I'm current in the Welsh borderlands. Fun times.

Anyway, to cut a long story short, in my absence a series of guest articles shall be appearing on the blog, hopefully. Thanks to those who have agreed and they'll be published throughout the summer.

If you're dying to have an article published on a 'buzzing' blog (HA!) why not email us: textualrelationsblog@live.co.uk - all articles will, of course, be credited and a free mug send your way.

And that is that.

"That is that, that is the end'" Tony uttered those words, complete with fake tear and turn to camera one as he left office. He then spent four months in the summer sun.

We're kind of leaving office but in a different sense.

Well, it's not the end but merely a wee break here at Textual Towers. The missus is back from her hillwalking in Wales and there are holidays to book - and perhaps more importantly holiday shopping to be done.

So, like last summer, I'll update the blog on a less frequent basis but I shall leave you with some music and the old testcard. Where would we be without Testcard B...rown?



Take care all and enjoy the summer sun whilst it's out!

She's a dirty girl pulling up her knickers...

The Civil Service is, simply put, the vital organ of government. Without it, it would rather be like being paralyzed from the neck down - able to talk but little else.

With this is mind, Rachel Sylvester's comments in yesterdays Times seem particularly pertinent.

Sylvester notes the increasing paralysis setting in within Brown's government, seeing legislation delayed, or 'reviewed':

"When Alan Johnson, the Home Secretary, announced a U-turn on ID cards recently, he was only catching up with his civil servants. The Home Office had already delayed the contract to print the cards until October 2010, well after the election. At the Ministry of Defence, big procurement projects, including Trident, are on hold."

And, rather like the dirty hussy at the office party, there is an increasing tendency for senior civil servants to sneak off for a quick fumble with the shadow minister.

It is a quirk of our constitutional system that such a system should emerge, unlike the American model which allows for a defined period of hand-over the British model literally hits the ground running.

So it should hardly be taken as surprising, with only a year away before an election must be called, that many servants are looking towards their new masters.

Indeed, it does seem as though the service is now somewhat getting into bed with the Conservatives, reflecting the view held by many that Dave's ambitions shall prove fruitful.

However, with the preference towards delaying and reviewing, the current situation can be seen to fuel the Prime Minister's own current political predicament. Little 'decisive action' can be taken and instead the circle is completed again of words but with no actions. Well, certainly not until they've won re-election...

And what are the chances of that happening?

Free fall is a must.

Well, it has to be said. The BBC has come up trumps with its latest helping of drama, 'Free fall'.

Set in the pre-bubble bursting age of reduced rate mortgages and rocketing investments Free fall takes a startling and provocative look at the events that caused our lives to spiral out of control. With pace, real edge and emotional punch, it gives a unique insight into how we came so perilously close to the edge of financial meltdown not just for those in the ivory towers of The City but of the houses, flats and, dare I say it, dreams of people throughout the country.

Anyway, enough of a write-up. Compelling viewing which is highly recommended.

Textual is in Liverpool...

Well, Textual Relations has been taking a bit of a break recently.

I'm in Liverpool for a few days researching the Militant Tendency of Liverpool in the early '80s, (Hatton an all!). That and actually doing some work for the ye olde rent.

I'll be back by the end of the week.

Saddam documents declassified

A few hat tips for this story. The Spectator, The Washington Post and The National Security Archive all report the declassification and release (via a Freedom of Information Act request) of the interrogation of one Mr Saddam Hussein, following his detention in 2004.

The documents provide a fascinating insight into the former dictators last months, weeks and days before his execution.

Saddam, the documents portray, was petrified of an ennobled Iran ready to attack Iraq at any given moment, especially if evidence of a weakened country was leaked to the world.

This, the papers suggests, was Saddam's justification for barring the UN weapons inspection teams, particularly in the wake of the Gulf War and later led by Hans Blix.

It also goes to note that there was no links with Al Qeada, merely 'opposing US policies' and not viewing the country with hostility. This was a key suggestion during the build up to the Iraq War. Indeed, with the redaction of certain elements the extend of this accusation can not be explored fully.

The comments on Saddam's in difference to the effects of his social and political 'management' also provide a fascinating insight, albeit a slightly sickly and obviously biased view of a man fearful for his life.

With the announcement in the UK of an independent Iraq War inquiry in private/public (delete as appropriate), as well as the declassification of documents and sources such as these, perhaps a more rounded picture of the "greatest foreign policy disaster of the twenty first century" (in the words of Nick Clegg) can begin to emerge.

PMQ's Report Card

With the news this week, from the 'chomping at the bit' School's Secretary Ed Balls, that schools are to introduce American style 'school report cards', what better time to introduce a PMQ's version...

Many blogs, such as Lobby Dog, have already been quick to snatch up the Clown Brown clip today, which features the baffling yet comical 0% increase line. (See below)



What exactly is a 0% increase?

Reports suggest the Prime Minister's official spokesman was equally as confused when quizzed by lobby hacks this afternoon.

PMQs quickly returned to the now familiar ground of Mr Cuts vs. Mr Trust. Cameron, for his part, challenged the Prime Minister to justify reported cuts ahead of (and after) the general election. Gordon, for his retaliation, played upon the idea of their being massive cuts under a future Tory government.

Iain Dale's diary has a good Tory slant on today's proceedings (and sadly the proceedings of every PMQs since Christmas...)

Both arguments seemed largely effective with their own backers but, perhaps as Nick Clegg argued, it is somewhat artificial to assume the outside world is caught up in this discussion.

Clegg, with his questions, seemingly attacked the Tories for cuts, attacked Labour for not being honest and then suggested the need for future cuts now. It was, at best, a shaky position.

Perhaps the most interesting question of the day came from a Labour backbencher (I've forgotten his name, it's been a long, hot day!). He proposed a return to Tuesday and Thursday version of PMQs - did away with under Thatcher. Gordon's responce? 'It's a matter for the speaker'. Well, John, if there was ever a move an' all...

Johnson announces ID Card u-turn.

Chris Huhne, Lib Dem Home Affairs spokesman, summed it up quite nicely,

"This is another nail in the coffin for the government's illiberal ID cards policy"

So, it looks as though ID cards are slowly being shown the door, asked to sit down and slowly forgotten about.

Make no mistake, removing the compulsory element of these cards signals the death nail for ID cards, with continuous polls revealing their unpopularity - particularly when the cost of the proposal, estimated to be near £100, was factored in.

However, the announcement today is an interesting one for several reasons. Leaving aside the obvious issue of appearing 'tough on terror', Alan Johnson appears to have made a distinctive move towards, pardon the pun, burying the hatchet that the Home Office is a graveyard.

When Johnson was shuffled across in the recent botched reshuffle considered opinion held the view that it was an attempt to 'neutralise' the former Postie. Reports however suggest the u-turn was not at the behest of the Prime Minister, rather a clear and vocal reminder that Mr Johnson remains very much aware for his own political career.

But, like so much of the government's current strategy, what remains crucial is where Mr Mandelson's hands lie.

Election issues starting to emerge...

Following this weeks PMQs (and many others) a clearer picture is beginning to emerge of the impending electoral battle lines.

Despite Ed Ball's incessant bobbing around this week, a Brown election campaign would almost certainly lead with the charge of the Tories being a 10% cut vote. Gordon, and his cabinet, have repeated this at almost every opportunity, seizing upon the very words of the Shadow Health Secretary.

Speaking of troublesome Health Secretaries, Gordon must have been ringing his fingers with the news that Alan 'I'll stop you at any cost' Miburn is to step down.

Back to the election issues though...

Cameron proves slightly more difficult. He has led on various fronts. The charge of landing the country with the highest level of national debt has been tried and seemed to largely appease the core vote. Nothing more though.

Incidentally, the Lib Dems now seem to be picking up on this theme, hoping to attract disaffected Tories as well as Labour voters?

So, considering recent campaign material, it seems more and more likely that Dave's campaign shall focus on one simple idea: Trust. He has repeatedly attacked Gordon at the dispatch box over the issue of capital investment, seeming to suggest that Gordon had misled the house.

Whether these themes can be relayed into the wider consciousness remains to be seen.

However, one fact does stand out. With ministers openly posturing for positions and election bandwagons being proverbially loaded up, an election must surely be in the offing some time soon?

John Bercow is elected speaker.

Update: Well, it appears as though Sir George did rather better than expected. Still beaten by John Bercow though.

Still, I did rather find myself siding with the 'anyone but Beckett' camp, something which became painfully apparent after the second round of voting.

Bercow faces an enormous challenge; that is undeniable. But, for tonight, let the pomp and circumstance continue.

If Beckett is elected it will be a sad day.

Well, we're now in the final furlong to elect a new Speaker of the House.

If, as the Bookies are predicting, Margaret Beckett is elected it shall be sad day for the back-benches and, in my opinion, Parliament at large.

The government lap-dog shall face a crisis in public opinion unprecedented in recent political history. Expect one of the most controversial speakers' elections of modern times. If she can muster the support of more than 50% of the House, then I strongly doubt she'll be the person to drive support through for greater reform.

For my money, I'd personally like to see Alan Haselhurst elected. YouTube him, he seems a sound choice!

Observer: Blair pushed for secret inquiry

The Observer this morning reports that former PM Tony Blair pushed for the much anticipated Iraq War inquiry to be held in private.

The paper alleges that Blair communicated through Sir Gus O Donnell, imploring Brown to keep the inquiry private, something Brown duly ceded to.

If the story is correct it demonstrates two aspects.

Firstly, Brown is now too weak. He fears the Blairite element and worries about angering the 'loyal', so to speak.

Secondly, and this is perhaps more telling, it suggests that Blair feels a degree of nerves not only for himself but for the people who surrounded him during the conflict. Remember, our current Justice, Foreign, Home, Defense and numerous other secretaries were all part of the Blair cabinet. As was our current Prime Minister.

Now why would he be so nervous for their futures?

Beckett now bookies favourite

Depressingly, Political Betting are reporting that Margaret Beckett is now the favourite to assume the title of Madam Speaker.

It comes despite new reports from the Telegraph which, again, reiterates the degree of Beckett et als involvement in the expenses scandal. None of the candidates have been 'whiter than white'.

Still, like last Wednesday, what strikes me amongst the claims is the sheer costs of items claimed. Just where are you buying £1000 worth of plants?

Redacting this week

This week has been another of high politics.

The feeling of lunging from one crisis to another has set not just with the government but with Parliament itself. Domestic politics seemed to cover old ground, u-turns, Iraq and MPs expenses. Foreign Affairs have also demonstrated a high-point in politics, demonstrations in Tehran, new agreements in Ireland on the Lisbon Treaty and even the Grande Dame of French politics, Mrs Chiraq, keeping the husband in line.

The announcement, at the start of this week, of an inquiry into the Iraq War was interesting in several respects. For Gordon's own reputation it was perhaps damaging. It demonstrated he had held no consultation with own, let alone others, party.

The nature of the inquiry, in private and by a Privy Council body, did no favours for the idea of openness and transparency. The later u-turn, agreeing that parts of the inquiry could be held in public, came after a heavy and largely unprecedented measure of criticism from leading former civil servents and former Army high brass itself.

Speaker Martin's final days have also done little for the reputation of MPs. The delicious hypocrocy of Cameron et al praising his abilities seemed at odds with the line taken only a few weeks ago.

Speaking of Speaker Martin, the man effectively in charge of the House, I wondered if he knew of the process of redaction. Most MPs vermentally assert they had no knowledge of the sheer level of black ink that would be applied to receipt and forms themselves. This again seems a contradiction to the idea of openess in Parliament.

However, this proves crucial in understanding the expenses scandal. Aside from police investigating several MPs, the process of redaction demonstrates that MPs have not been able to largely regulate themselves. The House authorities seem, at no point, to have grasped the seriousness of the level of public distrust and anger, and continue to be blistfully unaware.

Turning to Iran, Martin Amos, the author and poet, made an ominous prediction on the BBC's This Week. The strength of force in Tehran plays, he said, a crucial role.

Indeed, the old guard have so far with held back from a full on assault, perhaps cautious of the lessons of the Revolutionary Bodies own history, emerging from the over-throw of a deeply unpopular ruler. In the coming days and weeks, particular after the intervention of the Supreme Leader, it shall be interesting to see how authorites, and protestors, re-act.

The country now risks being very close to completely overthrowing the Islamic system all together or again surpressing the voices of a very considerable proportion.

Who knows what next week could only hold...

Rumours from the village

Morning all,

Well, in place of a normal post, here's a run down of this mornings main leaks, sorry stories.

The Spectator are reporting that Damian 'Trigger finger' McBride is back, with an email account.

Gordon Brown shall, in around 10 minutes, set out details of the Iraq inquiry. It shall undoutedly appease some factions of the party whilst being a barbed shot at the Blairite elements.

Isn't that right Former Defense Secretary Geoff Hoon...

Speaker Beckett?

This weekend, in the strongest signal yet of fear amongst the Labour ranks, former Housing Minister Margaret Beckett predicted a hung parliament.

Writing in The Times, Beckett displays the arrogant tone she has taken to adopting ever since her 'arrival' as Foreign Secretary in the dying days of the Blair government.

Her objective, to me, seems amazingly transparent. In emphasising the current predictions of doom and gloom Beckett hopes to further her stated ambition of becoming the Common's speaker.

What was it that Thatcher said about the oxygen of publicity?

Beckett's attempts at self promotion aside, she would be ill placed as a speaker for a new Parliament. Throughout the previous 12 years Beckett has remained a loyal backbencher, whip and minister. Unlike some of her notable counter-parts she has never, to date, criticised Government policy or personalities. Topped with the news that she herself also has questions surrounding the MPs expenses saga and it becomes a CV heading straight for the rejected pile.

No, she would not be 'best placed' (as she says) to reform and work with who-ever takes the top job. Saying all this, either are much of the other candidates...

Well, leaving aside the election of the speaker, Beckett's comments are interesting.

Predicting a hung Parliament has been something of a echo since as early as 2005. I suspect it would be no bad thing for our democracy to once again see a hung Parliament. The working of Cameron, a future Labour leader and possibly even Clegg could be the shot in the arm the country needs, seeing democractic renewal before their eyes. It could, just as easily, casade in one big infurno of political hustings and leave the 'real issues of the day' outside.

Political analysis have a proved record of getting wrong but I suspect, at the minimum, a smaller Conservative majority as a winner party with negotiations crucial for the future...

Speakers and Parliaments aside, how much longer should we continue to run with the 'Night of the Plastic Spoons' header? We has predicted taking it down on Friday but, in the words of Prime Minister Mandelson, 'there continues to be elements plotting Brown's downfall'.

Labour looks over the edge

Gordon Brown is meeting Labour members right now.

Last night, as the final result was declared in Manchester for the North-West region, one MP commented that a 'nasty taste had been left in my mouth'.

The election of two BNP candidates, for Humberside & Yorkshire and the North West, sent a chilling signal to Westminster (and to myself, living not far away from Nick Griffin's Welshpool home). Some have labeled this as merely a protest vote or because of 'local issues'. Indeed, it is a tried and tested BNP tactic to campaign on local issues, particular to select communities. However, the low voter turn-out, coupled with a disgust at MPs' expenses, must be sought out in an explanation of why the BNP did so well.

Coupled with news that Labour had lost a 90 year old control of Wales and been beaten into third position behind the Conservatives and the UK Independence Party.

So tonight, as Labour puts Gordon through his own star chamber, there will be much expected. Gordon clearly needs to articulate a 'way out' of the current perdicament, if only for his own political neck.

I suspect however that Gordon will be able to avoid the worst of the torture chamber.

Gordon has, to a degree, had the benefit of a reshaped cabinet. Unelected yes, but loyal. This rooting out of the dissenters today claimed my MP, Jane Kennedy.

Secondly, there is no rival. There is no stalking horse for that matter. If Labour were to really consider doing the dirty they would need Alan Johnston, or others, to stand.

Finally, and again for MPs own necks, the results from the EP elections shall have reminded MPs just how close they are to losing their seats. Electing a new party leader would inevitably lead to further calls for an early election, something most MPs are now desperate to avoid.

All in all, however thin the ice, I have a feeling Gordon may be able to skate over this one, this time.

Re-arranging the deck-chairs.

Image courtesy of the excellent Bleau Bo Dor Blog

The more I watch Gordon's emergency press conference, with its talk of presbyterian conscience, and honesty, I more it becomes apparent that this is a simple re-arrangement exercise.


The Spectator note that this is the most un-democratic government since the war cabinet of the Second World War.

7 ministers are now drawn from the Lords or shall be appointed to the Lords. This creates a serious democratic deficit, something Gordon famously aimed to abolish.

It is perhaps that, this democratic deficit, which is the real loser in this botched reshuffle. He may be drawing upon the Lords but his Commons authority shall now be severely tested.

Authority is now simply flowing from Number 10. For how long is now in the hands, almost entirely, of Labour MPs.

Political mood music for tonight

You've seven unelected ministers in your new cabinet, you've not slept since 10pm yesterday and there's still the EU election results to come.

So, put you're feet on and flick on the radio...



or perhaps...



Well, it's better than listening to Peter Hain and his crib sheet.

The state of play (tonight)

I've been cautious about doing one of these all afternoon, indeed I have spent most of this afternoon simply writing the '+++ XXX resigns +++'.

It's a sad state of affairs.

However, as the dust begins to settle, for tonight at least, it might be worth just taking a recap at who and why some of these ministers are leaving

Jacqui Smith - Former Home Secretary Arguably the point at which the rebellion gained momentum. It is now widely accepted that her departure was leaked by the next candidate.

Hazel Blears - Former Communities Secretary Following Brown's very public dressing down the former Communities Secretary snapped, telling Brown he had been unfair and ran a cowboy Cabinet.

James Purnell - Former Work and Pensions Secretary Perhaps the most directly damaging resignation to date, Purnell's resignation came as a shock to Downing Street and demonstrated the level of dischord within the cabinet prior to any other moves.

John Hutton - Former Defence Secretary Hutton's resignation is perhaps the least damaging, informing us that he'd been planning to resign for 'weeks'. Focusing on his constituency, remember that phrase? He's a known Blairite with this famous phrase, 'Gordon would be a fucking awful Prime Minister'.

Geoff Hoon - Former Transport Secretary Another 'friendly' resignation, still retaining some policy rolls.

Margaret Beckett - Former Housing Minister Revenge after being fired by Gordon as Foreign Secretary?

Caroline Flint - Former Europe Minister Angered at not being offered a promotion after veherment loyalty, Flint announced that Gordon treated women as 'window dressing'.

Well, that's the total so-far. Undoutedly there'll be more to come.

Opps. Completely forgot, another name for the pile...

Tony McNulty -Former Employment Minister
Known Blairite who's said to have been annoyed for quite some time.

+++ Flint resigns +++

The toll continues....

Flint adds her name to the roll. Her resignation letter was particularly pointed. 'Female window dressing' and a 'two tier form of Government'. Ouch.

Her timing was, however, unbeatable. Right in the middle of Gordon's emergency press conference.

+++ Hoon, Beckett and McNulty resign +++ Rumours of more to follow +++

The BBC are reporting that Geoff Hoon, the Transport Secretary, is to resign.

It remains unclear whether this is 'friendly fire' or a Purnell style leadership call.

Update one: Margaret Beckett has also resigned.

Update two: Ian Gibson resigns as an MP triggering a by-election for Norwich North.

Update three: Tony McNulty resigns.

Interesting comment from one of the new 'rebels', resignations is only chapter one. Sunday, if we make it to then, should be interesting....

More to follow.

Forget Night of the Long Knifes, this is Morning of the Plastic Spoons...

Alan Clarke's dairies tell of his abject fear of the Iron Lady's abilities to reshuffle her government. Eliminating those who challenged her and promoting those who'd suitably flattered her. Much the same can be said for Tony Blair, albeit watered down, eventually having to accept he couldn't simply fire Brown as he was so emphatically urged to do so.

This 'reshuffle' however is fundamentally different in one respect; the numbers.

Don't look, straight away, at who's entering the government but rather look at who's not leaving the government. This was billed as a radical reshuffle to reassert Gordon's authority. Instead,

• Peter Mandelson remains at Trade/Industry
• Alaister Darling remains at the Treasury
• David Miliband remains at the Foreign Office and
• Jack Straw remains at the Justice Department

The reason these haven't been moved? Not because they're doing an outstanding job (remember most of this week was spent as a distancing exercise from Alaister Darling) but rather the PM fears further turmoil, resignation and ultimately his demise.

Amidst all of this, there is surely one gleaming irony. Brown's frantic efforts to shore up his support has relied heavily upon the appointment of Sir Alan Sugar, soon to be Lord Sugar. (Does anyone remember Digby Jones? Cunt he may be but he effectively did the same job - then resigned) The same Alan Sugar who's been made famous for one phrase, 'You're fired'.

+++ Purnell resigns +++

James Purnell's resignation today, we are told, came as a surprise to Downing Street. The Prime Minister apparently took soundings from Mr Purnell as early as this afternoon and the good ship Brown (are ship metaphors being overdone?) was happy with the reply of the Work or Prisions Secretary.

His resignation should not have been a surprise, and yet it appears to have been.

Talk tonight of further resignations, John Hutton, Andy Burnham and even David Miliband would undoutedly change the picture dramatically, if they occured. The change would to to such an extent that it would be impossible to see how Gordon could continue.

In short, what we are witnessing is a cabinet coup.

But, like any coup, you shall need enough support. If Miliband, retaining if Foreign Office position, comes out and supports Gordon then I suspect the immediate danger shall pass.

However, one thing which shall be undoutedly damaged is this. Only three days ago the immending cabinet reshuffle was billed as being 'radical', Chancellor Balls, Foreign Secretary Mandelson etc. If, and this is still a hypothetical if, Darling and Miliband remain in their positions it shall demonstrate something much more dangerous - Gordon is scared.

Blears stands down

Make no mistake, Hazel Blear's resignation was calculated to cause the maximum damage possible, undermining Gordon ahead of the local and EU elections and taking away any gusto he may have dreamed of in a post election reshuffle.

Rumours are abundent at Westminster of an email, circulated to all, calling for Brown to step down immediately. Alan Johnston seems to be favourite for the position of a so-called care-taker Prime Minister.

I want to suggest two senarios. Firstly, if the pressure of Gordon becomes too much, high level resignations and open challenges to his authority (rather than the cloak and dagger affair at the moment) and he resigns any new comer would have to call an election. Austin Michell MP has floated this idea all morning. It would simply be too much for the electorate to see another 'unelected' Prime Minister, even though our system has no such direct election mechanism.

Secondly, Gordon survives. He has lost an immense amount of allies (Watson, McBride and Co) but manages to carry on; importantly without the likes of Blears in cabinet opposing him. The so-called 'green shoots' emerge and with Balls as Chancellor the economic picture improves. Going to an election, like this, would prehaps provide the worst-case senario for the Tories. Green-shoots could also be Gordon's saving grace. Anyone remember John Major's prospects in '91/2?

But that is perhaps the best case.

In reality it looks increasingly likely that the Prime Minister's authority shall be severly tested. And, as Labour MPs begin to concentrate 'on their constituencies' (you'll be hearing that phrase alot in the days and weeks to come), the sense of a panic within the party shall well and truly set in.