We're moving to WordPress

Ahead of Election Night, and our extensive* coverage, we're moving to a new platform. WordPress. 


So, from tonight you can now access our new blog: 

www.politicsmash.wordpress.com

Cider tax dropped

After much furore in Dorset and Somerset - and many other quarters - the cider tax increase rate plan has been quietly dropped. 


Ministers were forced to rescind the increase, announced in the Budget, as part of efforts to get laws passed after the general election was called.


The Digital Economy Bill's Broadband Tax and Voting Reform Legislation has also been shelved. 


You'd never guess there was an election... 

We're off. At last.

So, Gord drove to see an old lady - who can't vote - she said alright and Gord drove back. Welcome to the 2010 campaign. 


In the meantime, and rather cynically to steal media attention, don't call me Dave jumped up and set out his campaign. Yes, just him. In contrast, Gord wheeled out the cabinet. (Mandy and Jowell seemed particularly bored). Nick seemed slightly confused and only later grabbed his wife - Vince - and managed a rather lacklustre speech. 


So, what is the state of play after the first day? 

• Dave drove home the National Insurance row, after Gordon dropped the NI bomb during a GMTV interview (hard-hitting it was too). Speaking at a Warburton's factory in Bolton, Cameron repeated the need not to risk economic recovery. 
• Gordon spent most this afternoon rowing back in media interviews on his NI position. Constitutional reform also suddenly popped up again.  
• Nick visited my neck of the woods - Liverpool Wavertree. After a quick 10 minutes tour of a community centre, he attacked the Tories and Labour. Interestingly, he didn't shy away from a full on attack on Labour during the last PMQs - accusing them of blocking reform etc.  

+++Brown admits mistakes to Iraq War inquiry+++

Did someone say Militant Tendency?

Michael Gove's attack today on Labour comes at an interesting time both electorally and for the Labour Party. 

Labelled as the 'new Militant tendency', Unite have come into CCHQ's firing line for their links to Labour MPs and, specifically, Gordon - following the announcement of BA strikes. 


Having just written a chapter on Militant for my impending dissertation, I find  the Gove announcement interesting. 


Firstly, it seems to affirm that Gove is indeed in the 'A List' - a group of Tories who will be wheeled out across the country to demonstrate that the Tories have changed. Eric Pickles, the party's chairman, has been left out. 

Secondly, in invoking the idea of Militant tendency, with their entryist strategy and Trotskyite ideology, the Tories are attempting to highlight Labour own funding 'issues' - much the same as Labour has down with Lord Cashcroft. 


It does say a lot though that the most effective tactic the 'new' Tories seem to have is to attack Union funding... 


Nevertheless, it does raise interesting prospects for the post-election environment and it seems to suggest that the Unions have once again become a rattling stick for the Tories. 

+++Fifth Labour MP being investigated over expenses+++

More soon.


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Civil servants told to imitate answer phones

Without doubt, this is my favourite story from yesterday's national Civil Service strikes.

Dog insurance a non starter

New plans for 'Pet Asbos' are a complete non-starter.  

In fact, aren't they completely lifted from an episode of The Thick of It. Series 1, Episode 2? 

What is going on with the Tories?

A few months ago, it was no secret, Labour's chances were shot. Gordon looked to be leading Labour to a Foot-esk electoral defeat. The Tories consistently enjoyed a lead into the 40s and on a whole host of issues - crime, terrorism, the economy, social reform, etc - Cameron's Conservatives led.

So what's gone wrong?

Economic worries. Cameron's spring 'we can't go on like this' campaign - with talk of cutting hard and fast - hardly won any favour with a shaken electorate. By contrast, Darling during the same period was able to articulate a pledge to reduce the deficit on a more 'relaxed' basis. 

Personalities must also factor. I wonder, in the years and months to come, whether Gordon's appearance on the Piers Morgan programme will ultimately be of some use. It certainly showed a more human side to the Prime Minister and alluded to the problems of office. 

The manifesto also poses problems. Having a 'draft' manifesto is perhaps one of the most novel ideas from Cameron's Conservatives to date. However, as Michael Gove's school reforms plans suggest, they open up the possible of attack much sooner - simply put: they either look shiny and dazzling or they sink into a quagmire of arguments. 

The Cashcroft affair deserves a mention. Ashcroft has further served to underline perceptions of Tory elitism - the old boys network - with campaigns being afforded huge amounts of cash (far more than the unions could ever muster). Today, indications suggest a rift within the Tories about Ashcroft with those to the moderate wing of the party infuriated by his timing. The fact he has launched fresh legal action against The Indy - further prolonging the saga - hasn't gone down too well. 

If Cameron is to move back into double figures he'll need to tighten up his ship - simply relying on the public to dislike Gordon will not win them an election. 

Election night counts back on?

Iain Dale, the Conservative blogger and soon to be prospective parliamentary candidate, highlights an important - and under reported - aspect of the Constitutional Reform and Governance Bill. 

It all follows concerns that many Returning Officers will wait until the Friday morning, rather than the traditional overnight count, to being their returns. 


The Guardian's January article challenged the overall impact of Returning Officers' decisions - claiming over half questioned would still oversee an overnight count - but this still raised the possibility of nearly half the counts being delayed. 


Dale challenges this still further. He notes that key sections of the bill have been removed, paving the way for overnight counts to continue. 

NEW CLAUSE 37 - Parliamentary elections: counting of votes

'(1) Schedule 1 to the Representation of the People Act 1983 (c. 2) (parliamentary elections rules) is amended as follows.

(2) In rule 44 (attendance at counting of votes) after paragraph (5) insert-

"(6) In making arrangements under this rule, the returning officer shall have regard to the duty imposed on him by rule 45(3A) below."

(3) In rule 45 (the count)-

(a) after paragraph (3) insert-

"(3A) The returning officer shall take reasonable steps to begin counting the votes given on the ballot papers as soon as practicable within the period of four hours starting with the close of the poll.";

(b) after paragraph (7) insert-

"(8) The Electoral Commission shall issue guidance to returning officers on the duty imposed by paragraph (3A) above."

(4) After rule 53 insert-

"Counting of votes: statement by returning officer

53ZA (1) In a contested election, if the counting of the votes given on the ballot papers did not begin within the period specified in rule 45(3A) above, the returning officer shall before the expiry of the period of 30 days starting with the day on which the poll closed-

(a) prepare and publish a statement giving the information specified in paragraph (2) below, and

(b) deliver it to the Electoral Commission.

(2) The statement must-

(a) specify the time at which the counting of the votes given on the ballot papers began,

(b) describe the steps taken under rule 45(3A) above, and

(c) explain why the counting of the votes given on the ballot papers did not start within the period specified in rule 45(3A) above.

(3) Where a statement is delivered to the Electoral Commission under paragraph (1)(b) above, the Commission shall specify in any election report they produce that a statement has been delivered to them under that paragraph in respect of the constituency to which the statement relates.

(4) In paragraph (3) above "election report" means a report under section 5(1) or (2A) of the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000 in relation to the parliamentary election in question."'.- (Mr. Wills.)

Considering the increasing possibility of a hung parliament, it seems ever more important that counts declare as soon as possible - avoiding any delays in the coalition building process.  

+++Ashcroft / Tories cleared of wrongdoing+++

Update: BBC News provides a fuller breakdown. 

Conservatives are being called in for a meeting with Electoral Commission though. 

Update two: As Michael Crick points out, Happy Birthday Lord Ashcroft, the old money-bags is 64 today. 

Hansard Society: Trust in Parliament only falls by 1%

The Hansard Society have published an interesting report this morning. 

The '7th Audit of Political Engagement' provides refuffal to the idea of a 'collapse in political faith' following the expenses scandal. 

Amongst the reports findings, they concluded that: 

Almost three quarters (71%) of people questioned said that they had discussed MPs' expenses over the past year, compared to considerably less than half (41%) who said they had discussed politics or political news.

The survey found that 76% of the electorate believe it is their duty to vote, but just 54% are absolutely certain to do so in the general election

But, most significantly: 

26% of voters said they trust politicians generally – down just one point from the 27% recorded in 2004. Numbers saying they distrusted politicians rose by only three points over the same period from 70% to 73%.

Lord Who?

Considering the furore surrounding William Hague's position on Lord Ashcroft, this morning's poll results for the Tories are quite good.

Hague, speaking to the BBC's The World Tonight, seemed to distance himself (and by inference) the party from their wealthy donour - stating that he had 'no knowledge' of Lord Ashcroft's 'non-dom' status. Hague originally nominated Ashcroft for a peerage in 2001. 

Yet, despite this, this morning's YouGov poll places the Tories in a 'No Change' positon of 38 (from yesterday's poll), Labour suffer a point loss at 32 and the Lib Dems return to form at 19 (+3) after yesterday's slump to 16. 

This suggests three interesting points:

1. The Tory brand is relatively undamaged by the Ashcroft affair - suggesting the public simply don't care about the tax status of a non-dom, or, perhaps more worringly for the Tories, such behaviour doesn't come as a surprise. Landed elites anyone?

2. The affair points towards a wider distrust in politics, with both Labour and the Conservative's having suffered in recently days and weeks from a number of heavy hitting affairs. In effect, Darling's admission of bullying in Downing Street and Ashcroft's tax dodging have cancelled one another out. 

3. We are still heading for hung parliament territory - with both the Tories or Labour failing to open up a substantial lead despite each others respective problems.

Michael Foot remembered

Tributes have continued to pour in for the former leader of the Labour Party, Michael Foot.

Both Neil Kinnock and Maggie Thatcher have paid their tributes to Foot, describing him as a giant of politics.

Foot, aged 96, over saw one of the most turbulent periods of the Labour Party, leading to it's biggest electoral defeat.

Arguably, he failed to spot the dangers posed by radical groups within the party - but I suspect this shall form a minor foot note in history.

Michael Foot, 1916 - 2010.

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A tale of two polls

A few months ago it was dismissed as out of hand, today two new polls seriously suggest the chance of a hung parliament. 

A ComRes poll for The Independent has the Tories (slightly) ahead with a 5 point lead. Despite such a lead, it would still mean Labour returned as the largest party. 

However, a YouGov poll for The Sun paints a slightly different picture. They point to the Tories having a 7 point lead, which would leave Parliament with no overall majority. 

Either way, according to the polls, we're heading for hung parliament territory.

+++ Ashcroft admits non-dom status+++

At last....

Statement from the non-dom peer: 

1st March 2010 

A Statement From Lord Ashcroft

I am making this statement in advance of the release by the Cabinet Office of limited information about the award of my peerage and of the undertakings I gave at the time.
While I value my privacy, I do not want my affairs to distract from the general election campaign. I have therefore decided to release a copy of the letter which I wrote to William Hague, and to expand on what actually happened.
As the letter shows, the undertakings I gave were confirmed in a memorandum to William Hague dated 23rd March 2000. These were to “take up permanent residence in the UK again” by the end of that year. The other commitment in the memorandum was to resign as Belize’s permanent representative to the UN, which I did a week later.
In subsequent dialogue with the Government, it was officially confirmed that the interpretation in the first undertaking of the words “permanent residence” was to be that of “a long term resident” of the UK. I agreed to this and finally took up my seat in the House of Lords in October 2000. Throughout the last ten years, I have been declaring all my UK income to HM Revenue.
My precise tax status therefore is that of a “non-dom”. Two of Labour’s biggest donors – Lord Paul (recently made a privy councillor by the Prime Minister) and Sir Ronald Cohen, both long-term residents of the UK, are also “non-doms”.
As for the future, while the non-dom status will continue for many people in business or public life, David Cameron has said that anyone sitting in the legislature – Lords or Commons – must be treated as resident and domiciled in the UK for tax purposes. I agree with this change and expect to be sitting in the House of Lords for many years to come.

Technical problems

Sorry for the problems of the blog - we're looking at why stories aren't reaching our twitter feed (or loading new stories). 

A blog on Cameron's 'fightback' speech, and the rest of the weekend's action, shall be posted tomorrow morning. 

Kilfoyle to stand down

Peter Kilfoyle, MP for Liverpool Walton, is to stand down at the next election. 

Kilfoyle entered Parliament in 1991 after the incumbent, Eric Heffer, the Militant Tendency favourite, died of a heart attack. 


I only interviewed Kilfoyle before Christmas. He talked then of retiring. 


It follows the news that another of Liverpool's MPs, Jane Kennedy, is to stand down. Kennedy, who represents Liverpool Wavertree, announced she not to stand again after a similar career path - challenging and defeating Militant Terry Fields for the Broadgreen constituency. 


I also met her recently. (I can see a trend here...)


I wonder, if in the selection process for Kilfoyle's seat, whether Labour will have learned the lessons of the Luciana Burger affair...

Gordon's new puppet (courtesy of Taiwanese TV)

Confirmed: Tory lead still only 6pc

A lot of Tory folk got very excited last night when a YouGov poll seemed to suggest the Tories were back up into a double figure lead following Bullygate. 

However, Peter Kellner has confirmed the figures to be inaccurate. Rather, they show no difference between the set released on Saturday night. 


The fact that these figures have remained the same must come as a much needed break for Labour and a let down for the Tories - and Lib Dems. 


So, they stand as: 

CON:        39% (39) 

LAB:         33% (33) 

LIB DEM: 17% (17) 

However, caution, I suspect - although it might not be being taken 'as seriously' at the moment - the label of 'bully' might be seen to have a wider resonance - particularly with floating voters around the time of the election.

DCEF respond to bullygate

Guido Fawkes's blog (www.order-order.com) is reporting one of the funniest things to emerge from the bullygate story.

As ever, Ed Ball's Department of Children, Schools and Families provides fresh comedy. An upcoming training day, scheduled for next month in Leeds, shall look into Anti Social Behaviour, Bullying and Truancy. 

I've never voted Tory before...

  

Credit: Dizzy Thinks (http://dizzythinks.net)

Will bully-gate have an impact?

Will the bully-gate allegations actually have any impact? 


That is a question I have been wondering ever since the Rawnsley extract was published on Sunday. 


It's hardly flattering to be described as a bully, and stands in sharp contrast to both the profiles of Nick (who) Clegg and Dave. 


Political Betting point towards a good analysis. Essentially, from a pure stats point of view, it's simply too early to tell. 

We should see two new polls tonight - the monthly ICM survey for the Guardian and the YouGov daily survey for the Sun. Fieldwork for the former started on Friday and continued until last night while I’m not sure about the timings for the latter.

I suspect though the old maxim, as stories continue to swirl back and to, might come to mind: no news is good news... 

+++Bullygate update+++

I'm not really sure it warrants its own 'gate' but we'll run with it for now.

Questions remain as the timing, and patronage, of Christine Pratt's statement on the bullying allegations swirling around Westminster. Her charity, The National Bullying Helpline, seemingly has links with the Conservatives - although, as some have been at pains to point out, there remains no link between the two.

One other piece of news, the Cabinet Office have no officially issued a rebuttal of the Andrew Rawnsley claim that the PM was issued with a warning, stating that: "It is completely untrue to say that the Cabinet Secretary ever gave the prime minister a verbal warning about his behaviour".

Update: 
There's a lot of chatter, admittedly on twitter, about an election announcement tomorrow. Quote, 'it'd certainly kill the bully stories'. Labour do seem to have bought a lot of billboard space recently (as you'd perhaps expect anyway). Personally, I'm skeptical but it is doing the rounds...

BBC Four's 'On expenses' - not to miss!

The undervalued (and underfunded) BBC Four shall screen what I suspect shall be a cracking political drama this week.

In essence, it marks the battle between Freedom of Information Requests (something I've become a particular fan of recently) and the battle for MPs to be exempt from 'their' own laws.

Anna Maxwell Martin plays journalist and campaigner Heather Brooke, whose tenacious investigations brought about the disclosure of MPs' expenses, much to the annoyance of Michael Martin (Brian Cox).

The drama is set to be broadcast on BBC Four, at 9pm on Tuesday 23rd February.

Rawnsley rounds on Gordon

                                                                                                                                                                      

Andrew Rawnsley's expose of the inner workings of Downing Street shall, I suspect, come as a shock to some. 


There have, for some time, been questions of the Prime Minister's suitability in office. Andrew Marr famously asked if he was popping pills to survive the stress of being PM. Gordon flatly denied this.

 He has done the same with these latest set of accusations.

My favourite, being serialised in the new look Observer, notes how the PM's official car white leather seats are no longer white - stabbed in frustration with a black Biro. Other stories include an ability to hurl Nokias (and fax machines) at unsatisfactory individuals, and of course, diving across the cabinet office table to grab a civil servant by the scruff of their neck.

Rawnsley is tonight standing by his comments: "I haven't become a serious political journalist by making up stories" he told Sky News.

A closer reading of Mandelson's Sunday AM performance as well doesn't flatly deny all the allegations.

Gordon unveil's election slogan

A future fair for all

That shall be the election campaigning slogan adopted by Labour. 

Rather interestingly, a pack being delivered to those on the front-line has another, equally as interesting, slogan, 'Let the fightback begin'.

One other tidbit of news, for all you Jackie Wilson fans out there, it looks as though 'Your love keeps lifting me higher' is the new D:ream 'things can only get better'.

I'll let you judge that.

Textual is dead. Long live its little brother.

Textual Relations, shall shortly, shuffle. 

Why? Well, to be honest, it was an ill-conceived idea - based around a political joke more suitable to Capitol Hill rather than Stanford Hill. 

So, what's replacing it? 

Well, rather like the attractive new wife: Politics Mash (a working name) will come with a whole host of new features. 

Firstly, the site is going to be give a whole new lick of pain. The decorations shall be in (so to speak) and the old styling and design will go. In its place, I hope something more suitable to a) British Politics and b) a younger audience. This is, after all, a student blog. 

Secondly, the site shall actually extend and make use of new 'social media'. Such a wank term. Basically, we're actually going to use Twitter properly and give a more rounded view of a) student politics and b) our take on events. 

Finally, we hope to have a lot more fun along the way. I appreciate the site has been as dead as a New Labour Policy Unit recently but, with finals nearing, now should hopefully be the time to pick up the baton again. (No laughing at the back, especially those who have heard me say it before). 

On that note...