Make no mistake, Hazel Blear's resignation was calculated to cause the maximum damage possible, undermining Gordon ahead of the local and EU elections and taking away any gusto he may have dreamed of in a post election reshuffle.
Rumours are abundent at Westminster of an email, circulated to all, calling for Brown to step down immediately. Alan Johnston seems to be favourite for the position of a so-called care-taker Prime Minister.
I want to suggest two senarios. Firstly, if the pressure of Gordon becomes too much, high level resignations and open challenges to his authority (rather than the cloak and dagger affair at the moment) and he resigns any new comer would have to call an election. Austin Michell MP has floated this idea all morning. It would simply be too much for the electorate to see another 'unelected' Prime Minister, even though our system has no such direct election mechanism.
Secondly, Gordon survives. He has lost an immense amount of allies (Watson, McBride and Co) but manages to carry on; importantly without the likes of Blears in cabinet opposing him. The so-called 'green shoots' emerge and with Balls as Chancellor the economic picture improves. Going to an election, like this, would prehaps provide the worst-case senario for the Tories. Green-shoots could also be Gordon's saving grace. Anyone remember John Major's prospects in '91/2?
But that is perhaps the best case.
In reality it looks increasingly likely that the Prime Minister's authority shall be severly tested. And, as Labour MPs begin to concentrate 'on their constituencies' (you'll be hearing that phrase alot in the days and weeks to come), the sense of a panic within the party shall well and truly set in.
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