Sunday, March 29, 2009

G20 - Sink or sail moment for Gordon


Andrew Rawnsley's Observer article today proves essential reading.

The G20 meeting later this week shall undoubtedly prove a news-worthy event. Alongside President Obama there shall be a whole host of international statesmen and women. Cynically, it could be argued that it is because of President Obama that these leaders have paid so much attention to the G20, usually a mere meeting of finance ministers with a rather dull statement at the end.

Whether Gordon Brown can gain anything from this meeting is another matter.

As Rawnsley points out, Gordon has gone out of his way to 'hype' the meeting. Indeed, he has had two triumphs so far. Firstly, he has drawn the attention of leaders to this rather overlooked event. Secondly, drawing upon the presence of President Obama, who shall already be in London, adds another 'wow factor' to preceedings - not least an opportunity for a photoshoot with the new President.

But, Gordon is playing a very fine line.

If the conference fails to reach an overwhelming agreement, a new Breton Woods for the 21st century, Gordon risks landing egg on his face. Indeed, already Berlusconi and Merkell have voiced opposition to the way forward presented by Brown. However, if Gordon can succeed then he shall appear, on the international stage, to be the deal-broker, 'the fixer' if you like.

The chances of this are increasingly slim though. Downing Street has already notably tempered the language of Brown. No more is it the case than Gordon proclaims the emergence of international consensus in London, instead merely the hope of a mutual agreement.

The real problem for Gordon though is far outside of the meeting rooms of Whitehall. Although markets shall undoubtedly pay lip-service to any agreement in London, the confidence of the markets, and the resulting financial instability, is crucial. If Gordon, within 6-12 months is unable to show the famous green shoots of recovery then any appearance of international statementsmanship shall be scuppered.

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